WEATHERAmerica Newsletter; Saturday, October 11; 2025; SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 

Guess Again. That is Not A Nor'easter Off Of The East Coast!

METEOBLUE

UQAM Meteocentre (3)

University Of Wisconsin Weather Server (3)

TwisterData.Com (3)

College Of Dupage Weather Laboratory

I hate to break this to the storm-deprived weather enthusiasts in the Mid-Atlantic and New England states. That disturbed area offshore of the Southeast is NOT a Nor'easter! This is a subtropical low that is inhaling moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Jerry, scattered around one or two centers that will not congeal and likely spread only minor precipitation west of the shoreline of the Eastern Seaboard. This system will make for miserable weather along the resort points that have been hoping for one last warm-up before any part of the resorts east of the Interstate 95 corridor. Winds will be gusty, seas choppy, and beach erosion will be present. But the heavy rain component will be marginal at best, there is no chance for a major temperature drop and the energy will turn eastward after paralleling the coast of New Jersey. And then temperatures will surely rise.

All your hopes for a wintry surprise in the Northeast are gone. You must wait longer.

Is The West Ever Going To Clear Up, Turn Warmer, And Dry Out?

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

ECMWF

I would not count on any major shift toward warming and drying in the West during the near term. While earlier model runs showed an almost crazed +PNA/-AO blocking configuration over North America, the truth that has emerged is almost a polar opposite (pun intended) of that alignment. The trough and cold dome entering the West Coast will come to a rest in the Bay Area of California, and is not likely to move out through the Intermountain Region until around October 18. The gyre has to smash down the powerful Texas heat ridge. A breakthrough from the West may result in a closed low aloft in the lower Great Lake, but this would be a polar air mass, so drops in temperature would not be that profound. Most model guidance shows the trough reforming across the Intermountain Region heading into Week 2, piling up high elevation snow to the left of the Continental Divide but likely causing warm advection in Texas and through the Great Plains.