TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | U-M Researchers Help Ocean Observations Snap into Focus University of Michigan - 3 June 2026 Scientists have used a U.S. Navy ocean forecasting model to predict where internal tides occur in the ocean in order to bring ocean patterns important to weather forecasting and shipping into clearer focus. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
NH....VT....MA....RI....CT....NY....NJ....DE....PA....MD....DC....VA....NC....SC Upstate....N GA....E TN....E KY....E OH....WV
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
FL Peninsula
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
S NM....C, N TX....N LA....S AR
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
NH....VT....MA....RI....CT....NY....NJ....DE....PA....MD....DC....VA....NC....SC Upstate....N GA....E TN....E KY....E OH....WV
(QPF 1 - 5")
Isolated Locations In
S NM....C, N TX....N LA....S AR
(QPF 1 - 3")
Isolated Locations In
FL Peninsula
(QPF 1 - 2")
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
SW OR....CA....S NV....AZ....Far S UT....Far SW CO....W NM....TX (excluding Panhandle)....S AR....LA....MS....AL....FL....GA....SC....C, E NC....E VA....MD Eastern Shore....DE
(a review of important weather features around the world)
FENG YUN IO
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; CMA
Admit it. These continual heat ridge related forecasts get tiresome, right?
Unfortunately, the numerical models are very stable with the massive and seemingly immobile subtropical high that covers the Arabian Peninsula, Persia, and Pakistan. This is where climatology is an excellent air to forecasting, because if you compare the attached maps to what the Middle East and Indus River watershed have looked like over the past two years or so, there is very little difference. The El Nino episode is impacting the monsoon, which continues in a cramped position from southern and central India through Indochine but has made little progress in expanding westward. Ther temperature outlines are unmerciful, even so far as spreading the intense heat across Central Asia into northeastern China. This scenario is unlikely to change until after September 8.: relentlessly hot and dry from North Africa through Iran into northern India.
HIMAWARI 8
Kochi University
An erratic, incoherent Madden-Julian Oscillation signal can make for a lot of hot and dry locations in the Asia/Pacific sectors.
At one point, it seemed like the MJO was anchored in Phase 2 (centered over and to the immediate left of Sri Lanka). Note there is a very vivid shift to a phase 7-8 position with emphasis on the southern Hemisphere. Strong heat ridging is evident over Saudi Arabia and central Asia (and about to grip much of the PRC) and should establish an important presence in western North America (once the currently evolving disturbance is out of the way).
A cold front is winding through Australia and into New Zealand, wth linkage to the remnant convective array across the equatorial Indian Ocean. An Antarctic cold pool and storm is approaching the subcontinent from the southwest.
GOES WEST
METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
The disorganized MJO signature is allowing for a larger heat ridge presence over the central and Eastern Pacific Basin. That might keep the impulse southeast of Hawaii out of the islands as it heads slowly wet and north. Heat ridging over the western USA may get a boost as the storm offshore of CA falls apart, and the incoming polar westerlies move toward Alaska. Also note that the southern Pacific Ocean is laden with deep, cold troughs and frontal structures, which could make for some interesting conditions for the start of calendar winter in South America.
GOES EAST
METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
I am watching the disturbed area in the western/southern Gulf of Mexico very intently, for this feature has a chance to evolve into a weak tropical depression or storm. The eventual path of the impulse will likely be close to the Mexican and Texas Gulf shoreline and then into the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall impacts on the Interstate 69 corridor could be extreme; the ECMWF suggests much more than 12" of moisture in an arc from Houston TX to Mansfield LA between now and June 18. That precipitation could get entrained in a severe weather event over the Midwest and Northeast next weekend.
The current low and frontal structure hammering the Heartland with severe weather and heavy rains will move steadily into New England, Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday. I am watching a blocking ridge formation in the Arctic regions of Canada which could enable a very cool response into much of the new week from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, while the West bakes under a Sonortan heat ridge.
As we move into the cold season over South America, there are three separate disturbances and frontal structures crossing the southern half of the continent. Of particular importance is the massive vortex nearing Easter Island, which will bring rare potential for rain in Chile and massive snowfall across the lower Andes Range. Very hot, and mostly dry conditions exist from the Caribbean coastline through central Brazil and Bolivia, something typical of an El Nino episode.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; RAMDIS
Question: Is that a Grand Banks vortex?
Answer: Yes, although it may moderate a bit in the string June sun.
Second Question: Could that gyre advect hot Saharan air into much of Europe?
Second Answer: Yes, it probably will.
The broad upper low will likely sag south and east before stalling out west of Portugal next weekend. That will mean a straight shot flow from the western Sahara Desert. The ridge complex there is strong because the easterles and ITCZ are carrying multiple disturbances toward the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, with the northern third of Africa in a highly compressed, subsident environment. The British Isles may briefly get a cooling frontal structure. But if the ECMWF scheme is correct, much of the subcontinent will be very hot and dry for the following ten days or so.
The African continent should remain in a hot/dry North vs. very moist Central vs. warm and dry South alignment for the foreseeable future. But at some point in July the thunderstorms are likely to stop in the middle chamber of Africa as El Nino exerts its influence with increased ridging north and south.
