TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | Scientists Eye Hurricanes, Rainfall in Global High-Def NCAR - 25 September 2025 An innovative computer modeling system simulates Earth’s atmosphere in unusual detail, capturing thunderstorms worldwide and showing how distant weather systems could influence the evolution of storms in the tropics. |
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| | Weather Underground - 30 September 2025The season typically undergoes some important changes in October that affect not only how many storms form, but where they're more likely to strike. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts; Large Hail; Isolated Tornadoes)
C, E MB....Far W ON....N MN
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
WA....OR....N ID....W MT....W WY
(QPF 1 - 3"; Snow, Ice Above 4000 Feet)
Scattered Locations In
C, E SC....E NC....SE VA....MD Eastern Shore....DE....NJ....LI NY....E CT....RI....SE MA
(QPF 1 - 3")
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)
Isolated Locations In
S AB....S, C SK....Far W MB
(Snow; Near-Blizzard; Starts As Rain>Sleet)
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Isolated Locations In
S AZ....C, S NM....OK....KS....OK....TX....W LA....W AR....W MO....SW IA....SE KS
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Progressive Pattern With Interspersed Blocking At Higher Latitudes Implies "Warm But Not Hot" In Southwestern Asia!
There is evidence of high-latitude blocking across Eurasia, but so far impacts on the Levant, Persia and South Asia seem minimal. There is scant evidence of meaningful precipitation below Anatolia and the Caucasus/Caspian Sea, and that means that during the next ten days a mostly warm and dry outlook will continue in the Middle East, Iran, and the Indus River watershed. The heat ridge complex has been broken up, however, so those occasional inroads of polar air that so dominate eastern Europe and Russia may be felt (occasionally) in Turkey, Georgia, and northern Iran. Rain will be hard to come by as one pulsation is into Yemen and central Africa, while the synoptic forcing is strictly on a west-to-east alignment from Scandinavia ionto Poland through the Ural Range.
HIMAWARI 8
JTWC (2); Kochi University
Nakri is on the verge of becoming a typhoon, but will mostly not impact weather in Japan as it moves eastward and then toward the Aleutian Islands. Other waves over the western Pacific Basin and adjacent Indonesia, may, however grow and develop into tropical cyclones, and I am eyeing possible impacts in the Philippines and coastal East Asia later in the new week. Keep in mind that if any of these storms merge with the Aleutian vortex, then a warm West vs. cold Central, East North America alignment is possible in the extended range.
We are moving deeper into the Austral Spring, but there are still strong storms and cold fronts grazing southern Australia and New Zealand. Another shortwave and frontal structure is very far north into the subcontinent, with warm/dry conditions either side.
GOES WEST
NHC; METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
It has been a bizarre tropical year, with a weak La Nina and the equatorial Pacific Basin having 17 named storms and the Atlantic side showing only 11 declared tropical cyclones. That has an El Nino association, as does the firm moisture axis from below Hawaii to the Galapagos Islands. So we have two possible analog contributions to the winter season forecast (details later). The dewpoint fetch across southern and western Mexico feeds into the weakness across the Desert and Intermountain Regions, thus enabling severe thunderstorms. Raymond has weakened into a tropical depression as it moves north of Cabo San Lucas BCS and enriches the precipitation potential in the West. A new disturbance below Central America poses a danger of crossing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and possibly involving the Gulf Coast.
The combined Aleutian + Gul;f of Alaska vortex and trough poses the danger of an early season wind and snow event in the Prairie Provinces on Sunday into Monday, with an intrusion of cold, polar air.
GOES EAST
NHC; METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
Jerry is dead, its energy and moisture field sucked into the subtropical low now skirmishing the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coastline. The larger feature is mostly warm-based and is not a Nor'easter. Meanwhile, a massive wave below the Cape Verde Islands looks to become the 12z named storm in the Atlantic Basin theater within 48 hours. While official sources are ruling this another "fish storm", I think that track scenarios will not be clear until the key map features are designated and upper/surface flow is established.
Cooler air has largely won out in the eastern half of the lower 48 states. thunderstorms have suppressed heat in the West. Hot air will start to expand across Texas and Oklahoma on Sunday and may linger in the south central states into next weekend.
South America has a great deal of scattered diurnal convection, most of which is occurring to the right of the Andes Range. It appears that cold frontal prentrations are slacking off as we move into springtime.
METEOSAT SEVIRI
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Europe certainly looks cooler! A blocking high across the British Isles will slide eastward in between two cold upper lows, offering two or three days of moderation in temperatures through the following three days. A broad, full-latitude longwave trough complex in Russia is not as cold as its counterparts in winter, but may set up a prolonged period of a broken snow cover from the Lapplands through much of Siberia.
Showers and thunderstorms from Zimbabwe across South Africa will continue to be heavy, as will the central reaches of the African continent. The ITCZ is diffuse. But most of the numerical models keep thunderstorm threats going from Eritrea into Sierra Leone. The Sahara Desert and Sahel remain quite warm as the polar regime in European countries will have only marginal success in getting past the Mediterranean Sea.
