TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | Iceland Deems Possible Atlantic Current Collapse a Security Risk Reuters - 12 November 2025 The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, brings warm water from the tropics northward toward the Arctic, keeping Europe mild, and a disruption in the current's flow could trigger an existential threat there: a modern-day ice age. |
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| | Building Better Weather Networks Eos - 27 October 2025 A lack of weather data often leaves African communities vulnerable, but convergent efforts to improve observational networks throughout the continent are slowly filling the gaps. |
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| | The Conversation - 21 October 2025Events in St. Louis more than 80 years ago serve as a reminder of how bad a situation can become before people’s objections finally force the government to act. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
AZ....NM....OK Panhandle....W TX
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
Coastal OR....W WA....S BC
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
AZ....NM....OK Panhandle....W TX
(QPF 1 - 2")
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)
Isolated Locations In
E ON....W QC....W NY....NW PA
(Snow; In Squalls; 4 - 8")
Scattered Locations In
N QC....N Labrador
(Snow; Near-Blizzard; 4 - 12")
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
The protective ridge stays for a few days.
Most of the Middle East and Persia retains a warm, dry ridge complex that should hold back the trough and storms over Europe and Asia Minor. This is similar to, but not as dramatically hot, as the heat ridge complex that fried a wide area from the Levant through Iran into the Central Asian Republics this past summer. But unlike that very durable subtropical high, the monster trough now on the move through the western half of the European subcontinent will make inroads next weekend and trigger strong thunderstorms, followed by a cool stratiform rain through the Caucasus and the Caspian shoreline region. The bitter cold, however, will stay put across eastern Siberia and central Canada, and pose no threat to invade southwestern Asia.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
I use the water vapor image to show how extensive, and chaotic, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is. Mostly in a Phases 2 through 6 alignment, the MJO is feeding the southern branch jet stream, much like would be the case in many El Ninos and not a La Nina, a moderate strength version such as now. This configuration is not cold-favoring in much of the USA, but does tend to increase precipitation and act8ive storminess across the southern and eastern tiers of the lower 48 states.
Cyclone Fima will largely bypass Australia, although the precipitation and outer wind layers could graze/impact the northwest coast of the subcontinent. A great deal of fair and hot weather is expected across the Outback and along the cities on the eastern coast.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
That is Arctic air over the Gulf of Alaska associated with a vigorous vortex offshore of British Columbua. Soon this mAk gyre will link with the deepening low off of the coast of California, creating an elongated 500MB trough from the Prairie Provinces into northwestern Mexico. But only a breakaway portion of this complex will pass through the Great Plains and Texas, a transient cold frontal passage that reaches the Great Lakes and Northeast in late week. Another southern branch storm could arrive below the U.S. /Mexican border next weekend.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
The cold fronts passing through the eastern third of North America are nothing special. But showers and thunderstorms to the right of the Mississippi River will ultimately be followed by genuine cold, with Arctic air reaching through much of Canada by the end of the new week. SAt some point, a cA vortex will set up over Hudson Bay, with a Southeast ridge core in Florida. Colder air will not last long over the Eastern Seaboard, while the broad upper low off of California will start to seriously lower readings across the Desert and Intermountain Regions and get boosted by an incoming trough by Tuesday.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
The "Wow, summer really is over" moment....
Europe has storms with high-elevation snowfall, but a genuine full-latitude trough in the eastern Atlantic Ocean will push through the entirety of the subcontinent during the middle of the new week. Temperatures will be chilly, and a great deal of locations will be below freezing (some during the length of the day). Chances for frozen precipitation will be evident above the Mediterranean countries, which should be near enough to the Saharan heat ridge to avoid any early encounters with sleet and snow through December 2.
The ITCZ has been suppressed and condensed into the Congo Basin eastward to Tanzania. The westerlies have descended now to just a hair above the Equator, with some convective precipitation into Mauritania. The hot and humid weather is expanding in the southern third of Africa.
