WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, June 30, 2024

[Larry Cosgrove]

Where Is The Hurricane Headed For?

Two things to remember about Beryl. One is that areal coverage of the system is very small. The second issue is that while the storm is moving due west at the time of this writing, there are alterations in the upper low over the Caribbean Sea which may well weaken, or even dissolve the circulation. I generally favor the 0z operational GFS and 12z operational ECMWF model handle on the hurricane, which could briefly reach Category 3 status before hitting the "wall of shear" (southwest flow aloft vs. rapid easterly flow at surface) to the left of the Lesser Antilles. It makes sense to take a conservative approach in the medium range outlook. and that would mean that this tropical cyclone aims at the Yucatan Peninsula in a weakened form before merging with the monsoonal fetch now pushing northwest from Mexico. There is some potential for the moisture from the hurricane to involve the Rio Grande Valley in about a week from today. Keep in mind that seasonal tropical climatology argues for Beryl to at least weaken and possibly break down once the circulation moves past the Windward Islands. If this storm were occurring a month later, stability or growth would be probable.

Are The Heat Ridges Here To Stay?

About 1 in 3 of the numerical model families have been showing a deeper 500MB trough across the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes in the medium range. But the majority hold on to the cool Canada vs. (mostly) hot USA alignment seen in June. Thunderstorms are a big threat for the Great Plains and Corn Belt, while the durability of the subtropical high in Texas generally keeps the Lone Star State and neighboring Louisiana very hot and dry. If an unforeseen deviation in the track of Berl were to bring that system or any other tropical feature to the western Gulf Coast, then and only then would the opreditiion take on a wetter look. That option is probably a month or so away.