TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | Today - 30 April 2024The tragedy spotlights the dangers of bounce houses in windy weather: Recent research published in BAMS found that wind-related bounce house incidents were responsible for more than two dozen deaths and nearly 500 injuries during the years 2000–21. |
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| | Pacific Northwest National Laboratory - 2 May 2024 A new study finds that coastal conditions have changed since 1979, driving nearshore hurricanes around the world to intensify at a quickening pace. |
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| | How to Clean Up New Delhi’s Smoggy Air Paul Scherrer Institut - 25 April 2024 An international study shows for the first time what portions of particulates in the air over northern India are especially harmful to health. |
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| | SFGate - 29 April 2024 It’s only the ninth time the reservoir, which holds 254,000 acre-feet of water, has filled since its completion in 1958. |
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| | Florida Atlantic University - 29 April 2024Researchers have developed a novel technique that provides rapid, high-resolution assessments of detailed damage after a hurricane. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Tornadoes; Likely MCS or MCV in Texas)
S AR....LA....C, E TX....OK....W, C KS....SW NE....C, E CO
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
C, E NE....W IA....S MN....W WI
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
S AR....LA....C, E TX....OK....W, C KS....SW NE....C, E CO
(QPF 1 - 6")
Isolated Locations In
W ON....S MB
(QPF 1 - 2")
Isolated Locations In
NL Newfoundland
(QPF 1 - 2")
Isolated Locations In
C, E NY....N PA....N NJ
(QPF 1 - 2")
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Isolated Locations In
Interior CA....AZ....NV....UT....S ID....W WY....W CO....W, S NM....C, S TX....Coastal LA
Isolated Locations In
S FL
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Often a major, long-lasting hot spell precedes the advance of the summer monsoon.
The repeated pattern shown on model forecast imagery is for a stretch of extreme heat (even by regional standards) preceding the formation of a monsoon trough (diffuse 500MB low) over the eastern Arabian Sea. In the same time span (through May 21), a strong shortwave in the polar westerlies moves from Turkey to the Caspian Sea. That track will generate more intense thunderstorms through much of Iraq into northern Iran. But notice that below the best chances for precipitation is searing heat, which at times may bump up to 35 N Latitude. Much of southern Persia and Pakistan, which I expect to be targeted for abundant rainfall this summer from monsoonal disturbances, will undergo afternoon maxima repeatedly above 45 deg C.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
Waiting on a typhoon?
The Madden-Julian Oscillation has become very chaotic. Convection firing over the equatorial western Pacific Basin must be watched for tropical cyclone development. But so far, there are just pulses of thunderstorms embedded in a linear wave to the northeast Of Papua/New Guinea.
Note also that the connection to the polar westerlies coming off of Asia is largely broken up. That would mean increased heat ridging in the subtropical zones, which in time will expand eastward and involve Mexico and the southern USA. It appears that the last trough and cold front in the sequence are exiting the coastline of China.
Aside from a thunderstorm group centered on Tazmania, Australia and New Zealand and mostly quite dry and rather warm.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
The storms cluttering the eastern Pacific Ocean will have a major impact on the lower 48 states, mostly moving in tandem with the subtropical jet stream. The southern branch is slowly ascending, which in time will allow a building heat ridge in Mexico to edge into the southern tier of states (probably in a week or so). But between now and May 21, thunderstorm potential will increase markedly. First across the Intermountain Region, then in Texas and the Great Plains this week.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
You can see a southern branch shortwave near the "Four Corners". This feature will track slightly south of east into the Red River Valley, and give rise to an intense thunderstorm grouping (MCS or MCV) which will restart the recent trend of severe weather and excessive rainfall across the south central states on Mother's Day and into Tuesday. A closed low in the Northeast will keep temperatures down and trigger locally heavy rain and thunder during Sunday.
The brutal display of flooding rain and thunderstorms from northern Argentina into southern Brazil shows no signs of letting up. Colder, but still unstable air with showers and some thunder cover the southern third of the continent. Note that the space from the Caribbean Sea southward to the targeted rain and flood area is generally hot, humid with little convection.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
A rather odd blocking configuration with an Omega-frame ridge in Scandinavia will prevent any intense heat in Africa and the Middle East from getting into most of Europe. For now at least. Once concern that I have with two broad, closed 500MB lows either side of the ridge complex, severe weather and flooding rainfall may be recurrent through the end of the month.
The ITCZ is pulsing, with an impressive MCV-like feature moving from Nigeria toward Sierra Leone. Shearing winds are still quite entrenched across the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, so further organization is unlikely. Dominated by the Saharan and Kalahari heat ridges, most of Africa looks hot and dry for the foreseeable future.
