WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, July 26, 2026; SHORT And MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOKS

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 

The Same Ol', Same Ol' (Searing Heat West, Central Vs. Changeable East Alignment)

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

ECMWF 

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory

The power of the Sonoran heat ridge is astounding, with core 500MB heights reaching 600dcm in a wobbling pattern from Oklahoma and North Texas back into Utah. Before the subtropical high undergoes a general retrogression, the near term will feature brutal heat from California into the Mississippi Valley. Mostly diurnal thunderstorms with an upper weakness should remain over Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard. There is a weak monsoonal moisture fetch from Mexico that will climb into the lower and middle Rocky Mountains, so it is possible that orographic convection could ease the heat in the valleys of some parts of the West.

 

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

(Four To Ten Days From Now)

 

That Heat Ridge Is Something Else...But More Thunderstorms From The Upper Midwest Into The Eastern Seaboard

METEOBLUE

UQAM Meteocentre (4)

TrueWx.Com (4)

ECMWF (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory

We just cannot seem to lose that heat ridge! But there is a subtle difference in the forecast pattern, where the subtropical high retrogresses to the classic Sonoran Desert and Intermountain Region position, This puts much of the West in brutal heat, especially California, Nevada and western Arizona. An offshoot of the ridge complex extends into Texas. Eventually, the higher 500MB heights will ease toward the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, erasing the slightly cooler values and tendency for both diurnal thunderstorms and MCS formations that will be repeated from Ontario and Quebec southward to Florida and the Bahamas. I also am casting a wary eye toward the Mexican shoreline/Oaxaca State, because tropical cyclone development nearby could enter a weakness in the Bay of Campeche.

But to be honest, the heat is the main issue through August.