WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Thursday, February 2, 2006 at 4:10 A.M. ET
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Discussion)
WEATHER SUMMARY THROUGH NEXT 72
HOURS
Talk about a busy forecast period!
Three separate disturbances in a sequence originating over the Gulf of Alaska will impact the lower 48 states and Canada between now and Sunday. For brevity, impulse 1 is deepening in LA and is destined to head northeastward toward QC. Impulse 2 is barely visible as energy across the Intermountain Region, and may develop into a bombogenesis event affecting the Eastern Seaboard. The third impulse, the last in the series, is west of the Puget Sound vicinity and should bring another round of heavy rain and snow to BC....WA....OR....N CA....N NV....ID before weakening in the High Plains during Day 4.
The first system is important not only in terms of sensible weather (strong thunderstorms in Dixie, moderate/heavy rainfall Appalachia and the Atlantic Coastal Plain with a heavy snow band from N MI through parts of ON and SW QC), but for the idea that the exiting low will enhance a surface frontal structure and baroclinic zone from N FL into ME. So when the digging shortwave activates another area of low pressure, that feature will likely ride the boundary just west of the shoreline, and not head seaward (with colder air and snow for the Interstate 95 corridor) or west of the Appalachian Mountains. Teleconnections on a formative cA vortex in QC strongly support a "Piedmont" cyclone, which may bring excessive rainfall amounts, strong winds, and thunderstorms along and to the right of the trajectory of the low center. Since expansion and closure of the 500MB signature occurs on Saturday, it is entirely possible that the upper Ohio valley, lower Great Lakes, the interior Northeast, and much of the St. Lawrence Valley could see locally heavy snowfall accompanied by high winds. While I think the 0z Feb 2 GFS panels are in error, you may notice the rapid deepening and nearly due north motion projected by the American scheme. This may be an indication of NWP agreement on the formation of an Arctic motherlode in QC, a feature that will only arise from a rapid deepening of a cyclone near the shoreline. I must also point out that the new low will grab a great deal of tropical warmth and moisture from the heat ridge positioned north of PR, so QPF amounts from GA into New England and QC may actually be underdone, IF this storm develops according to plan.
What could ruin the chance for a breakthrough weather event along the East Coast (and notice, I did not use the word historic...)? That would be the disturbance approaching the Pacific Northwest, which, if it holds together, would act to limit the amplification of the 500MB component trough to its east. I will, for now, at least, go along with the scenario of the last shortwave weakening and merging with its larger cousin downstream (remember, the Saturday/Sunday event is in the favored "middle" of the sequence). But should the energy move rapidly and in a due east direction, anything that happens over the Mid-Atlantic and New England states is likely to be ordinary. Cold air is likely to infiltrate most of the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes regions, while the Intermountain Region sees a "last gasp" of important precipitation before some manner of ridging occupies the western states during the longer term.
Short-Range Numerical Weather
Prediction Models
(red dot
indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
RUC NAM. GFS-5 RGEM. MM5 UKMET
CRAS SREF COAMPS RAMS
The
Weather Research And Forecasting Model Website
National Centers for Environmental
Prediction Models
Texas A&M Weather
Interface
______________________________________________________________________
Online Weather Information
Guides
AMS Glossary WW2010 Helper Section
Index
Weather Calculator
COMET Case Study Library on the WWW
Climate Normals For The U.S.
Golden Gate Weather ENSO
Page
Weather Discussion Forums
Eastern US Weather
Forums
CanadianWeather
Weather Information
Plotting/Mapping
The Weather Forecaster Web
Page
Plymouth State Weather
Center
Dr. Bob
Hart's Coolwx.com
U.S. National Satellite Perspectives
Next-Generation Weather Satellite Demonstration
Project
Infrared Visible Vapor
Hawaii Infrared Hawaii Visible
Alaska Infrared Alaska Visible Alaska
Vapor
Canada Satellite
Perspectives
Environment Canada Satellite Image
Directory
Satellite Animations And
Multi-Channel Imagery
RAMSDIS ONLINE
NOAA Polar Satellite
Views Around North America
Quicklook Swaths
Browser
AVHRR Dynamic Tracking Windows
Milan Konecny's NOAA Satellite Views
Savannah-Weather.Com
NOAA HRPT Weather Satellite Images
National Radar
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National NEXRAD Summary
Environment Canada Radar
Summary
Numerical Model Temperature
Forecasts
Current NWS MOS Forecast
Products
Links To Current Weather Conditions
Around
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MesoNet Data
NWS Precipitation Analysis
Pages Current Weather Observations
Ocean Prediction Center - Unified Surface
Analysis
National Data Buoy Center Near Real-Time Polar
Products
Solar, Lunar, Astronomy
Information
MeL: Space &
Astronomy
SpaceWeather.Com
Tonight's Sky Sky & Telescope Interactive Sky
Chart
Human Space Flight - NASA-TV Solar
Terrestrial Activity Report
Satellite-Derived Forecast Products
NOAA/NESDIS/ORA
Forecast Products
Near Real-Time Polar
Products
Upper Air Analyses
Around North America
Upper Air Data From University Of
Wyoming
Aviation Weather
Analyses And Forecasts
Soundings from Commercial
Airliners
Aviation Weather Center
(AWC)
ORA Projects Page
ADDS - Turbulence
Environment Canada Aviation
Products
National Soil
Moisture Levels
Palmer Index Map (For Soil Moisture)
Drought Monitor
Snow And Ice
Coverage
U.S. Recent Snowfall & Snowdepth
Maps SSD Snow Products
Page
___________________________________________________________________________
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes,
damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more
total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
(probable trajectory for midlatitude cyclones affecting populous sections of the United States and Canada)
______________________________________________________________________
AWC National Convective Weather Forecast Product
Oklahoma University Daily Real Time Analysis And Forecast System
Experimental 0-3 Hour Convective Weather Forecast Products
Collaborative Convective Forecast Product
Environment Canada Severe Weather Model
Severe Weather Watch Boxes
SPC Watch, Warning and Advisory Display
Local Weather Warnings
College Of DuPage Severe Weather Warnings Page
U.S. Station Weather Probability Forecasts
READY - State Weather
NAM MOS Graphics NGM MOS Graphics
Form For Selecting AVN MOS Bulletins NAM Precip Type Meteograms
______________________________________________________________________
Visible, Infrared, And Water Vapor
High Resolution Satellite And Radar Views:
University Of Washington Weather Graphics Loops
IPS Meteostar
Regional Radar Summaries
Northeast
Southeast
North Central
South Central
Northwest
Southwest
Useful
Television Station And Commercial
Doppler Radar Sites
WeatherMatrix Radar Supersite : TV
Radars
Doppler Radar Images From
Government Sources
National Weather Service Doppler
Radars
Environment Canada Doppler
Radars
Experimental
Radar Images From The National Weather Service
National
Lightning Detection Map
StrikeStar US
Experimental Lightning Location
Network
Environment Canada Lightning
Map
BARBADOS Worthing VIRGIN ISLANDS St. Croix
Media Resources, Online Mapping And Travel AidsKevin Brewster Storm Spotting Frequencies Page
TV Station Web Page Directory Radio-Locator
National Traffic and Road Closure Information
MapQuest Windows Live Local Microsoft TerraServer Google Earth
The National Atlas of the United States of America
Where On Earth - Latitude Longitude Finder
Map-It - A GMT3 Map Generator
MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(weather trends through the next
6 to 10 days)
So, if the
storm develops and heads northward into QC, then what?
In a nutshell, normal February weather. Looking at all of the numerical models, I see NO profound blocking in the PNA or NAO positions. Yes, there is some manner of ridging present along the West Coast and near Baffin Island (0z Feb 2 GGEM), but NO extreme height anomalies appear. I suspect that the cA vortex generated by the Eastern Seaboard storm will linger over QC for a while, possibly allowing drainage of colder values through much of the Midwest and Northeast.
I favor the 0z Feb 2 ECMWF depiction of events, since most of the other equations have trended toward the European model scenario and away from the exaggerated, full-latitude trough seen in the runs from the day previous. The PNA-styled ridge, while strong, is not really a block as its core values are over ID. If we saw the highest 500MB heights in BC, then true cold extremes might be in store for the eastern two-thirds of the nation. As for storms, there is a reasonable chance that energy moving over the top of the anticyclone could trigger surface cyclogenesis on Day 7 somewhere over Dixie. But from looking at the general amplitude of the jet stream configuration at that time, odds are decidedly against any major cyclonic development.
Medium Range Numerical Weather Prediction
Models
(red dot indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
GFS UKMETx ECMWF. NOGAPS GGEM MM5x KMA RSM JMA CPTEC GBL Ensembles DGEX EPS Maps
NCEP AVN-GFS
Ensembles NOGAPS Ensembles WRF Hemispheric
Medium Range NWP Verification
Statistics
Climate Prediction Center - D+8 Upper Air
Tools
______________________________________________________________________
Worldwide and International Satellite
Images
Earth Viewer: View Any Location from Any
Satellite
______________________________________________________
GOES 12 (The
Americas, Atlantic Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
GOES 10
(Eastern Pacific Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
GMS 5 (Asia,
Australia, Pacific Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
METEOSAT 5
(Central Asia)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
METEOSAT 7
(Europe And Africa)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
Arctic Sea
Europe Infrared Europe Visible Europe Vapor
Russia The Middle East The Orient India
Australia New Zealand South America Africa
Antarctica
______________________________________________________________________
International Weather Radar Sites
WeatherMatrix Radar Supersite : World Radar
Data
Domestic And
International Weather Cameras
EarthCam
- Webcam Network
Satellite Images Of Individual Tropical
Systems
NRL Monterey Tropical Cyclone
Page
QuikSCAT
Satellite Images Of
Tropical Regions
GHCC - Interactive GOES-8 Infrared Hurricane
Sector
Atlantic Basin Satellite Services Division - Tropical Atlantic Satellite
Imagery
Mexico And Pacific Coastal
Waters
Central Pacific Ocean
Oceania And Tropical Western Pacific
Ocean
Indian Ocean
Digital Typhoon:
Typhoon Images and Information
Sea
Surface Temperatures
NODC Coastal Water Temperature
Guide
Great
Lakes Sea Grant Coastwatch Homepage
NCODA Sea Surface
Temperatures
NCODA Sea Surface Temperature
Anomaly
NCODA Sea Surface Temperature
Climatology
Marine Weather
Information
WWW Tide/Current Predictor - Site
Selection
Office of Coast Survey - Home - Nautical
Charts
Regional Ocean Forecast System
(ROFS)
NOAA/NCEP WAM Global Swell
Data
Environment Canada Ocean Wave
Forecasts
NOAA WAVEWATCH III Wave Models
(interactive)
Great Lakes Water
Levels
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE
on
Thursday, February 2, 2006 at 4:10 A.M. ET
Disclaimer:
The previous statements are my opinions only,
and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this
newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and
the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those
sites.
Copyright 2006 by Larry Cosgrove
All rights
reserved.
This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in
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author.