WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, November 29, 2025; NEXT TEN DAYS

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 

Cold To Be Sure, But A Moderated Arctic Air Mass East Of The Rocky Mountains

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

ECMWF

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (2)

Yes, this is an Arctic regime, and many will be surprised at the cold feel of the surface temperature fields as we start the new week. The storm which brought heavy snow, ice and wind to the Midwest and Great Lakes will move through the St. Lawrence Valley before exiting Canada across Newfoundland by Monday morning. This system may well be symptomatic of the main track scenario for the winter season; notice that despite a vivid dry intrusion and impressive warm sector advection, the front-end thump and snow totals near the center of the low pressure were fairly heavy. And when the path of the energy turns further south in January and February we may see some high ice and snowfall amounts in locations not seen in many years.

But not to "spoil the fun" for snow enthusiasts, opportunities exist for a warm-up in the West and even into Texas. Cold is the main order of business this week, but unless a strong anchoring blocking ridge takes shape near the Arctic Circle, this will be a transient/progressive pattern that will not allow for more than three days of meaningful cold air.

 

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

(Four To Ten Days From Now)

 

Colder Air May Stick Around Midwest, Northeast; But Warmer Elsewhere

METEOBLUE

ECMWF (4)

PivotalWeather.Com (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (2)

At a time when a Gulf of Alaska storm digs, then is lifting out along the Gulf and East Coasts, cold temperatures will consolidate over Canada, anchored by a Hudson Bay vortex. Most of the model guidance weakens the grip of the Arctic air mass in the lower 48 states, but not enough for the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast to effectively turn mild. If the upper low coming out of northern Mexico is stronger and tracks off of the coastlines, then frozen precipitation may get below an Interstate 20/95 line. But as temperatures are forecast to be well above freezing, the urban areas of the Mid-Atlantic and New England are probably looking at a mainly rain event on December 6-7-8. After this time frame it seems probable that a more moderate, semizonal configuration should overtake the southern 2/3 of the USA.