WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, June 16, 2024; SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 

The Puzzle In The Gulf Of Mexico: Is There A Storm And Is It Bound For Texas?

METEOBLUE (2)

TwisterDats.Com (3)

University Of Wisconsin Weather Server (3)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory

This is a complicated forecast, to be sure. There is a disturbed area associated with a diffuse frontal structure in the lower Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Upper winds are not favorable for tropical cyclone development, but a low pressure center and trough may form and head for northeastern Mexico. There may also be interaction with a storm and frontal structure exoting the northern Rocky Mountains (system now in the Gulf of Alaska), which would cause dispersal of energy and moisture and act against getting any extreme/excessive rainfall rates in Texas, which some of the model guidance is suggesting. If you buy into the NAM and ECMWF solutionz (and I do to some extent), the downpours and waterspout-producing thunderstorms will stay below Interstate 10. But recent GFS and GGEM data absolutely hammers much of The Lone Star State with more than a foot of rain.  For now, the more conservative approach holds. And I emphasize that, like the situation in Florida a few days ago, surface temperatures will not drop dramatically in the soupy tropical air mass.

Massive Push Of Hot Air Moves From Intermountain Region, Great Plains To Midwest, Eastern Seaboard

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

ECMWF

The push of the Gulf of Alaska Low and its parent trough form the West Coast to the northern/central High Plains will have two effects. One will be a severe weather outbreak in the Upper Midwest, eventually settling into the Corn Belt and Lower Great Lakes by the middle of the new week. The other will be the displacement of a massive heat ridge from the Great Plains and Southwest Into Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard. Follow a blend of ECMWF and GGEM temperatures (the GFS series is having trouble measuring the immense warm core of the subtropical high, which will be pushed to Chesapeake Bay by Tuesday. High dewpoints will accompany the hot spell, which could last in sections of the Interstate 95 corridor until June 25.