WEATHERAmerica Newsletter; Sunday, May 3, 2026; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

[Larry Cosgrove]

 EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

Heat Ridges Are In Your Not-To-Distant Future

CIMSS (2)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

HPRCC/University Of Nebraska (2)

Environment Canada

WeatherBELL (9)

The current hemispheric weather maps seem to give no hope to the idea that some sections of the USA will break out of cold frontal passages and cloud cover. But the longer you go into the future, considering the rise of El Nino and defined hot/dry areas, slowly a likely warmer turn emerges. This is wrapped around the idea that in a well-defined +ENSO signal that should reach a moderate stance (+1.0) somewhat sooner than expected, the Sonoran and Bermudan heat ridge complexes will start gaining latitude and show slow retrogression. Marine layer issues may keep the California coastal cities cool, and the Northeast may struggle mightily to be rid of polar air. But the cores of the subtropical high will, sooner or later, bring impressive warming to the western half of the nation as well as locations to the right of the Mississippi River.

This process likely will entail reduction of thunderstorm coverage in late May and June. The best odds on intense convection should be from the north central and Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/New England. The fear is that drought will be re-established in Texas, Dixie and the Intermountain Region/High Plains. If the Atlantic Basin turns warmer soon enough, we could see a more expansive ridge complex off of North Carolina that might finally bring hot weather into the Interstate 95 corridor. Latitude gains in the ridge system should be evident soon, nearing the Mexican border and also covering the Gulf Stream within two weeks or so.

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 2:00 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2026 by Larry Cosgrove

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