TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | Phys.org - 11 April 2024A recent study explored the intriguing relationship between hailstorms in the central United States and wildfires in the West. |
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| | University of Hawai‘i at Manoa - 5 April 2024 A new study shows that the interaction of partially buried urban infrastructure with shallower, saltier groundwater exacerbates corrosion and failure of critical systems. |
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| | New Radar Analysis Method Can Improve Winter River Safety University of Alaska Fairbanks - 12 April 2024 Researchers have developed a way to use radar to detect open water zones and other changes in Alaska’s frozen rivers in the early winter—an approach that can be automated to provide current hazard maps and is applicable across the Arctic and sub-Arctic. |
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| | Science - 19 April 2024Researchers have found that modern weather models can accurately predict the energy that Earth emits and reflects into space, which directly affects the movements of low Earth-orbiting satellites. |
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| | Scientific American - 12 April 2024 A new study finds that compound events in which coastal flooding and heat waves occur at the same time are happening more often as the planet warms. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Tornadoes)
C, E TX....SE OK....SW AR....NW LA
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
NW AR....W, C MO....IA....NW IL....S WI....extreme S MN
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
NE....C, E SD....IA....C, S MN....WI....N, C MI....ON Peninsula
(QPF 1 - 4")
Scattered Locations In
C, E TX....SE OK....SW AR....NW LA
(QPF 1 - 5")
Isolated Locations In
Coastal BC, WA, OR
(QPF 1 - 3")
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Isolated Locations In
S TX
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Intense thunderstorms and heavy rain are protecting you from a worse fate.
You have been reading about the hellish heat across South Asia, with much of the subcontinent suffering from almost daily hot temperature records being set. Challenging the draining sultry weather, which will expand laterally to the west over Saudi Arabia and northeastern Africa, will be shortwaves dropping out of the Balkan Peninsula into Anatolia and the Tigris/Euphrates watershed. These impulses are still strong in terms of cold air aloft and energy with impressive flow at the jet stream level. The nearest approaching system in the eastern Mediterranean Sea is a bit different from the previous impulses, since it has a weaker connection to the equatorial moisture source in the Nile headwaters. This pattern will continue until each disturbance tales a further north path (above the Caspian and Aral Seas), and the ITCZ consolidates its east-to-west moisture pull across equatorial Africa. The process is easily visible in visible and water vapor satellite imagery. If the ECMWF series is correct, the hot air starts to touch on 35 N Latitude on May 7. Give it another week, and rainfall should decrease markedly, and the entire stretch from North Africa through the Levant, Persia and the IndusValley will face the wrath of the hot summer sun.
Until that time, the Middle East, Iran will be targeted by intense convection with cases of hail, tornadoes, and drenching rains.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
There is an almost subtle expansion of ridging between the convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (incoherent, but with strong impulses) and the polar westerlies. This is a critical development, since the northern branch will start to be denied deep tropical moisture and energy from forcing associated with the equatorial disturbances. A subtropical high/heat ridge complex is taking shape, and will soon push the jet stream flow further north. In time, the ridging will expand north (into Asia and North America). That shift implies that the excessive heat occurring in South Asia will soon reach into China, and further down the road, into the lower 48 states east of the Continental Divide.
Note that the polar front has slipped below Australia and New Zealand. This is a mostly mild/warm alignment "Down Under", shutting off rain but allowing for record warmth at a time when colder air should be advancing from the Antarctic waters.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
Like it or not, a very stormy pattern unfolding in the West with an eventual reach into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Snow is now confined to the highest elevations of the Intermountain Region, but the upper atmospheric readings will be chilly and supportive of intense convection with hail in the Southwest (pushing out the very warm interlude ahead of the storm and frontal structure coming by next weekend). The next disturbances/frontal structures in the sequence should arrive in the 6-10 day period, continuing the recent trend of enhanced supercellular convection along and above 35 N Latitude. The ECMWF and GGEM series show potential for drainage of colder air from northern Canada into the Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast after May 5.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
A classic match-up of cP, cT, and mT air masses has set up the middle chamber of the lower 48 states for a brutal display of thunderstorms and tornadoes from Texas through the Great Plains and Corn Belt that will reach its third day on Sunday. While cooler air is noted across the Pacific Northwest, I must caution that the various computer models have shown flaws in handling the coldness of this regime, which subsequently does not appear as chilled as was suspected in the middle of last week. The frontal structure now crossing the USA will stall before reaching the Eastern Seaboard, and that may result in prolonged periods of heavy rain and thunder in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley and Appalachia in late week.
We are now seeing the first strong cold frontal passages of the fall in Chile and Argentina. The heavy rains and thunderstorms that have targeted the area along and below of the Rio De La Plata drainage zone are back, and a shortwave moving east from the Pacific Ocean is likely to re-energize the heavy precipitation during the middle of the new week. Also note that the diurnal and orographic convection across the northern half of South America has slackened, albeit under a very hot and humid air mass.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
A cool West/warm Central//cool East alignment for Europe. The large storm approaching the British Isles may actually create chances for heavy rain and thunderstorms there and into France for much of the new week, and temperatures in Ireland and the United Kingdom may be especially cold as we move into May. The system currently moving through the western third of the subcontinent is predicted to slow crossing the Italian and Balkan Peninsulas, becoming a prolific thunderstorm producer and later targeting the Middle East.
The increase in strong convection of central Africa and the western Arabian Sea is probably tied to the shift toward a -ENSO configuration. The ITCZ will solidify across the equatorial nations, with a monsoon-like response. But the southern and northern thirds of the African continent are likely to take on a durable hot and dry look that may last into mid-August.
