WEATHERAmerica Newsletter; Saturday, May 30, 2026; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST
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Larry Cosgrove
May 31, 2026, 12:44:36 AM (3 days ago) May 31
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EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST
(Between Day 11 And Day 15)
Summer Makes A Strong Comeback Across North America
WMO/Beijing
CIMSS (2)
TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)
NOAA/PSL (3)
NOAA/PMEL
NOAA/CPC
HPRCC/University Of Nebraska (2)
Environment Canada
WeatherBELL (9)
Most of the "chatter" in the energy and agriculture communities in the past week has sprung from a somewhat vague/hidden source that suggested that the so-called "Super El Nino" was going to make for a cold summer across the entire lower 48 states in the JJA semester. The problem is, of course, that the current ENSO state is a weak signature, evolving and taking a different course than what was seen in the summer of 2015, the only true "Super El Nino" on record. The sea surface temperatures then featured a very warm Indian Ocean, eastern Pacific Basin and Gulf of Alaska, and a huge Atlantic Ocean positive hydrothermal anomaly. In effect, there was a vast area of water that was much warmer than normal in addition to the equatorial realm, which was a full basin case (between the Marianas Trench and the Galapagos Islands.
That difference is important because it tells you that the apparent weather which occurred 11 years ago is unlikely to happen this time around. Also, the ENSO structure is still evolving, and likely will not reach a peak until perhaps November. The MDR of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean is actually a little colder than what it was a couple of months ago, as is the Gulf of Alaska. If you have not noticed, most of the model forecasts, like those of the summer of 2015, are fairly warm. You see, a true "super size" oceanic warm event supports a mostly hot summer in the lower 48 states, Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. There will be advances of cold upper lows form the Aleutian Islands these next two weeks, but that is typical of June and would allow some ferocious heat build-ups in Mexico, Texas and the Great Plains. Thunderstorm risks will be higher but further north close to the Canadian border. Tropical cyclone risks will be less, with more "homegrown" disturbance off of Cape Hatteras, in the Gulf of Mexico, and later in the Caribbean Sea. 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major category cyclones remains my call, with the greatest strike potential being from Florida and up along the Eastern Seaboard.
That difference is important because it tells you that the apparent weather which occurred 11 years ago is unlikely to happen this time around. Also, the ENSO structure is still evolving, and likely will not reach a peak until perhaps November. The MDR of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean is actually a little colder than what it was a couple of months ago, as is the Gulf of Alaska. If you have not noticed, most of the model forecasts, like those of the summer of 2015, are fairly warm. You see, a true "super size" oceanic warm event supports a mostly hot summer in the lower 48 states, Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. There will be advances of cold upper lows form the Aleutian Islands these next two weeks, but that is typical of June and would allow some ferocious heat build-ups in Mexico, Texas and the Great Plains. Thunderstorm risks will be higher but further north close to the Canadian border. Tropical cyclone risks will be less, with more "homegrown" disturbance off of Cape Hatteras, in the Gulf of Mexico, and later in the Caribbean Sea. 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major category cyclones remains my call, with the greatest strike potential being from Florida and up along the Eastern Seaboard.
Just so you are wondering, I think the third week of September, like a traditional El Nino, will see a pattern breakdown that resurrects the southern branch storm track and sets up excessive rainfall, thunderstorms and cooler temperatures in an arc from California to Texas to Florida/Georgia. But before we get there, plenty of hot weather dented by the occasional cold front and convection in the north central, Great Lakes, and Northeast.
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, May 30, 2026 at 11:45 P.M. CT
Disclaimer:
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.
Copyright 2026 by Larry Cosgrove
Saturday, May 30, 2026 at 11:45 P.M. CT
Disclaimer:
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.
Copyright 2026 by Larry Cosgrove
All rights reserved.
This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the author.
This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the author.
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