WEATHERAmerica WINTER SEASON (DJFM) OUTLOOK; Thursday, October 30, 2025; PART 3

[Larry Cosgrove]

JANUARY

A Kona Low. Prominent -EPO, -AO, -NAO blocking ridges. Probably a James Bay cAk vortex after mid-month. Heat ridge in the Greater Antilles. If this analog medley verifies, the January Thaw will give way to a major cold snap over the eastern two-thirds of the USA. Considering that (by far) the chief analog for the season is the previous winter (2024-25), such major height deviations may favor an intense last week of January winter storm from Texas into the Northeast.

FEBRUARY

I follow the seasonal analog list and CFS scheme, but warn the reader that the other model outlooks are mild. The monster blocking ridge over northern Eurasia, the North Pole and far northern Canada into Greenland teleconnects well with cAk vortices in western Ontario and the Grand Banks/Flemish Cap. Flat ridging may hold any of the bitter air out of the southernmost tier and Eastern Seaboard of the USA, so an opportunity exists for frontal wave cyclogenesis from Texas into New York and New England. This pattern is quite favorable for a widespread icing event in February, with a strong cAk air mass penetration in much of the lower 48 states. The West largely remains warm and dry.

MARCH

The analog-derived temperature forecast seems to go against that of the 500MB level, but is likely an indication of moderation in the second half of March as a new heat ridge takes shape over southern Mexico and allows better transport of tropical air into the southern and eastern tiers of the lower 48 states. But at some point in March, the potential for a deep, cAk vortex in the Great Lakes and Ontario is going to mean a fairly intense cold wave for a few days. Note the big precipitation signature from Texas into Pennsylvania, the likely catalyst for "one more big cold shot". The upper air forecasts suggest a more semizonal flow aloft with West Coast storms reaching through the Intermountain Region and into the Heartland around April 1.

EUROPE

A mostly cool winter with few major temperature deviations. The fact that negative thermal anomalies get far into the Sahara Desert, however, suggests that one or two cA regimes may follow a storm track involving the Mediterranean Sea and Danube Valley.

MIDDLE EAST, PERSIA

A scattershot temperature pattern in winter across the Levant, Persia and Pakistan usually is accompanied by an alternation of polar air masses and quick insertions of tropical air from eastern Africa, the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, So chances for snow in the higher elevations of Turkey, Iraq, and Iran into Afghanistan seem more likely, converting to heavy rain and intense thunderstorm events in March.

ASIA

The extensive warming signal across Siberia is most likely a vast blocking ridge. Whereas very cold air seems likely west of the Ural Range, the more moderate regime in central and eastern Russia will allow for cold air pooling from the Central Asian Republics through South Asia, with an unstable maritime air mass from central and eastern China into the Japanese Archipelago and the Philippines. This looks like an active precipitation pattern for highly populated Asia, with chances for larger cold snap evident as well.

SUMMARY

Given that the most used analog for the upcoming winter season is 2024-25, that somewhat cool period may be repeated in the upcoming DJFM semester. But a colder turn seems possible in late January, and much of February and March with occasional appearances of a cAk vortex near or below James Bay. Snow totals should be a little higher than last year, with added risks for severe winter storms in late January, late February and the middle of March.

There may be one or two credible chances for ice storms in JFM 2026, due to a persistent flat heat ridge straddling Mexico and the Greater Antilles.

It is possible that the cold air could sneak south of the border and the Gulf Coast, however.  The winter may be somewhat laggard since most forecast guidance has a fairly mild and benign November and December.