TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | University of Utah - 8 August 2025New research documents how smoke from the West’s wildfires substantially increases ozone concentrations, often above federal health standards and even in remote places with few human emission sources of ozone’s precursor pollutants. |
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| | Global Network Taps Tree Rings to Study Impact of Tropical Drought University of Arizona - 5 August 2025 A new study leveraging 20,000 tree-ring records and nearly 150 scientists' contributions from across the globe shows that, while droughts appear to have had a modest impact on tropical tree growth in the past, that may not be the case for long. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
FL....S GA
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
E SK....W, C MB....ND....SD....MN....W IA....C, E NE
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
NB....ME....QC Eastern Townships....N NH....N VT....N, W NY....W, C PA....N MD....N WV....OH
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
MT....WY....C, S ID
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
FL....S GA
(QPF 1 - 3")
Scattered Locations In
E SK....W, C MB....ND....SD....MN....W IA....C, E NE
(QPF 1 - 3")
Isolated Locations In
NB....ME....QC Eastern Townships....N NH....N VT....N, W NY....W, C PA....N MD....N WV....OH
(QPF 1 - 3")
Isolated Locations In
MT....WY....C, S ID
(QPF 1 - 2")
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
Interior CA....SE OR....NV....AZ....UT....C, S ID....C, S MT....C, S ND....SD....WY....CO....NM....TX....OK....KS....NE....IA....C, S MN....S WI....IL....MO....AR....LA....MS....AL....GA....SC....NC....TN....KY
IN....OH....WV....PA....C, S NJ....DE....MD....DC....VA
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Probably three weeks to go before the heat ridge breaks?
As steady as the summer weather patterns have been over the Middle East and Persia for the past seven years, there has also been a fairly routine ending to the obscene heat in the second week of September. This is not to say that relief with air from Europe and Russia will sweep into the region like clockwork on 09/08/2025, but rather that lower 500MB heights, increased cases of showers and thunderstorms, and further south cold frontal penetration will get started. So much so that people living in the Sinai Peninsula and Persian Gulf vicinities will feel at least minor drops in temperature and surface humidity by the end of next month.
But let us be realistic that the hellish display of hot air (cTw+mTw) has a lot of life left in it, what with a vast, trapped subtropical high that will be centered in western Iran between now and September 1. This being a very dirty ridge, chances for orographic or nocturnal anafront convection will appear in communities near mountain ranges and water bodies. But for about 90 percent of those residing in the Levant eastward to Afghanistan, it is purely awful with no rain, discomfort, and prayer for a reversal in climate change. By the way, a small portion of southeast Iran and southern Pakistan may be touched by the Asian monsoon. But most of the high dewpoint feed is headed either west (Africa) or east (India/Bangladesh).
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
Note the splintered tropical forcing shown on the Himawari 8 satellite image, with a fragmented Kelvin wave between Hawaii and the Marshall Islands. Rather than warming the oceanic thermal profile, so far sea surface temperatures are stable after a drop into La Nina status. The monsoonal moisture over Asia is following the broad westerly component of the upper flow across the northern Pacific Basin, which could have a huge influence of apparent weather in the longer term.
While generally quite dry, cold fronts are still moving through Australia and New Zealand. Two impressive impulses will move through the subcontinent in the next ten days, with some higher elevation snow and rainfall across the Outback and into the eastern urban areas.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
The Gulf of Alaska Low, attached to the Aleutian Low, has set up a broad trough over the eastern Pacific Basin that is characterized by westerly flow as far south as the equatorial zone. This is an unusual set-up for a La Nina episode, as the upper wind shift will not normally occur until mid-September along the Pacific shoreline. If the advance continues, colder trends will start infiltrating the Intermountain Region and Great Plains (which some of the schemes are illustrating) in Week 3. Ridging should hold across the West into the medium range, however, so precipitation potential should be limited to orographic and diurnal varieties.
GOES EAST
NHC; UWM; METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
A weak tropical low off of the North Carolina coast is actually the likely future location of (as of this writing) Category 4 Hurricane Erin. Erin will create issues for the NC/VA Hampton Roads vicinity with high winds and swells, and I would not be surprised to see rainbands reach the NC Outer Banks. Later Erin will granze Newfoundland and start a chain reaction of drawing down polar air across the Great Lakes and Eastern Seaboard in the medium range. Note that the active ITCZ should soon trigger another storm with threats to the Greater Antilles, Florida and the Gulf Coast in the 11-15 day period, and thereafter. Hot air is currently over the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, with isolated diurnal convection common in Texas and the Deep South.
A large tropical wave is exiting Columbia and Venezuela, while much of the northern half of South America is fair and hot. Strong cold fronts continue to advance from the southeast Pacific Ocean , which means Chile and Argentina will fall under a very cold air mass with some cases for mountain snow and convective rains.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
AS I have cautioned this summer, the European forecast trends have been warm or very warm, but really not all that hot. The exception to this characterization has been the nations adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea, where records have been routinely broken. You may have noticed that the series of upper level lows that have progressed across southern Europe are weaker now, as the polar westerlies have made steady progress in reaching lower latitudes. New disturbances and surface frontal structures will move from the British Isles into western Russia, so some cooler air is likely above 45 N Latitude as we move into the last days of August. But Greece and Turkey are likely to see continued brutal heat.
Africa is a curious case in that the ITCZ has expanded. Reaching to the edge of the Sahara and Kalahari Deserts, with four prominent waves churning across the equatorial regions. These impulses start in Yemen, grow over the Nile Headwaters, and reach peak intensity in a band from Nigeria to the Cape Verde Islands. Curiously, in the austral winter, Antarctic cold fronts are passing through South Africa while heat and dryness occurs just to the north.
