TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | NASA Launches Mission to Study Earth's Magnetic Shield NASA - 23 July 2025 The TRACERS mission will fly in low-Earth orbit through the polar cusps, funnel-shaped holes in the magnetic field, to study a process called magnetic reconnection and its effects in Earth's atmosphere. |
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| | The Conversation - 24 July 2025The National Weather Service has already issued more than 3,600 flash flood warnings across the United States in 2025, and there is a good chance the country will soon exceed its yearly average of around 4,000 such warnings. |
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| | NASA Employees Speak Against Cuts in Open Letter Eos - 22 July 2025 Nearly 300 current and former NASA employees have signed an open letter expressing concern that budget cuts to the agency will jeopardize safety, basic research, national security, and the nation’s economic health. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
E ND....E SD....W, C MN....NW IA....E NE....C, W KS....C, W OK....NW TX
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
E BC....AB....SW SK....W ND....W SD....NE Panhandle
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
W, C KY....C, E TN....W NC....GA....AL....FL
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
C ON....S, E QC....Labrador....N QC
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
E ND....E SD....W, C MN....NW IA....E NE....C, W KS....C, W OK....NW TX
(QPF 1 - 4")
Scattered Locations In
E BC....AB....SW SK....W ND....W SD....NE Panhandle
(QPF 1 - 3")
Isolated Locations In
W, C KY....C, E TN....W NC....GA....AL....FL
(QPF 1 - 3")
Isolated Locations In
C ON....S, E QC....Labrador....N QC
(QPF 1 - 3")
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
CA....SE OR....C, S ID....C, S MT....WY....UT....NV....AZ....NM....CO....W SD....W NE....W KS....W, S OK....TX....S AR....LA....MS....C, S AL....C, S GA....FL
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Today's weather word: UNRELENTING. And the back-up: HEAT
When a heat ridge sets up in the Arabian/Persian position in summer, the event can last for weeks or months. We have seen in the era of global warming, in the past eight years, cases of long-lived dry heat ridge complexes that set up, expand, and then burst like a bubble as the equinox approaches. That is where we are through the next month or so; usually in this scenario the anticyclone will last through around September 8, then fade as storms and cold fronts in the middle latitudes descend below 35 N. There is the possibility in Week 2 that a shortwave or mesoscale impulse at 500MB could pass through the Caucasus into Turkmenistan, which in turn could active orographic+diurnal convection in places like Mosul, Iraq; Sari, Iran and Koshk, Afghanistan. But the Persian Gulf communities and 500 miles either side will see more extreme heat, with high dewpoints that create unbearable relative humidity with no hope of important cloud cover or rainfall. This is a subset of the Saharan heat ridge, which in recent years has extended further north and east, thus limiting any monsoonal input. Thus, Pakistan will see relatively little rainfall, which a sof now is mostly contained in India and Bangladesh.
In case that you are wondering about the trough and mountain torque feature in Tibet and on into Siberia, it is moving east and of concern only to Mongolia and China.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
Where did the Madden-Julian Oscillation go? I cannot say with certainty that the MJO signal has vanished, as you can make an argument that the Phase 2 impulse near and east of Sri Lanka, a Rossby wave, is part of the convection associated with the episode. That said, the broad area of disturbed weather across the entire western Pacific Basin has incorporated any and all tropical energy and moisture. The monsoonal fetch will be altered by a broad, multi-centered trough stretched from Siberia through Tibet and eastern India, virtually guaranteeing that Indochina and the eastern PRC, Korean Peninsula, Japan and Taiwan will be seeing the important rainfall and thunderstorms. Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines will largely be bypassed by precipitation in the near term.
Note the rare cold frontal penetration of New Guinea and Oceania, with the storm track north of New Zealand. Another Antarctic vortex and frontal structure will deliver colder air and precipitation to the now-dry Outback of Australia.
GOES WEST
METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
As Tropical Storm Gil breaks up over the equatorial Pacific Ocean (moving into colder waters), it is highly probable that another depression or named storm will form in the equatorial moisture axis below Central America.
The occurrence of both an Aleutian Low and Gulf of Alaska Low, getting a moisture feed out of the western Pacific Basin, virtually ensures that southern Canada will be quite stormy. The impulses moving out of the storm sequence should keep any extreme heat out of the Pacific Northwest. But warm advection across the Desert and Intermountain Regions will boost the Sonoran heat ridge, so much so that the Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast will see a prominent heatwave in the medium range.
GOES EAST
METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
Do you see the convective circulation forming off of the North Carolina shoreline? This feature is rated by the National Hurricane Center as a "possible" for warm-core cyclogenesis and may revert west/southwest toward the coast. Also monitor the tropical wave over Puerto Rico. The disturbance could surprise if it tracks above or below the Greater Antilles in the next three days.
An elongated cold front is stalling out across Texas and the Deep South into the Carolinas. Thunderstorm production will be frequent and heavy along the boundary, and there is a chance for some interaction with the aforementioned low to the right of Cape Fear NC. That would mean Virginia and parts of the Mid-Atlantic could get another round of torrential rain. The field of cooler air in the Midwest/Great Lakes and Northeast should modify quickly by Wednesday.
South America has seen the passage of a very strong cold front and storm, remnants of which are seen as far north as Bolivia and Brazil. There is a gap between ITCZ waves in Colombia and the Cape Verde Islands, so the Amazon Basin dry spell should end next weekend. Yet another vortex and frontal structure will approach Chile by the middle of the new week.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Hot air is mostly limited to the Iberian Peninsula, but ECMWF model projections suggest that most of the southern portion of the subcontinent will get into rather warm conditions as the Saharan heat ridge expands past the Mediterranean Sea next weekend. A concern is that the active storm track, with abundant cold air and vorticity moving off of the northern Atlantic Ocean, will set up chances for strong/severe thunderstorms in much of Europe over the next ten days, with substantial cold pools pushing from the British Isles into western Russia.
The Saharan heat ridge has become concentrated over the central and eastern portion of North Africa, consolidating with the Arabian/Persian subtropical high. That motion allows for some moisture to move north and east from the ITCZ, which is why intense thunderstorms are possible in Mauritania and Libya in the near term. The impulses across the equatorial region start in the Horn of Africa and continue westward to Cape Verde, and from there pose increasing dangers for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic Basin. So far, the intense storms in the westerlies in the South Atlantic have not moved inland, so the area from the Congo Basin to South Africa is mostly fair, cool, and dry.
