TODAY'S FUN LINKS:ScienceDaily - April 28, 2021 Analysis of data from a lightning mapper and a small, hand-held radiation detector has unexpectedly shed light on what a gamma-ray burst from lightning might look like - by observing neutrons generated from soil by very large cosmic-ray showers. |
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EurekAlert! - April 29, 2021 Since the initial FY dispatch, China has successfully launched 17 FY satellites, seven of which are currently operating in orbit. |
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Forbes - April 27, 2021 Ten years ago today, the most prolific tornado outbreak on record swept across the southeastern United States. Part of a larger outbreak that started a few days earlier, the unrelenting barrage of supercells that day produced more than 200 tornadoes from Mississippi to New York. |
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Washingtonian - April 27, 2021 “I had my $10 shirt from Kohl’s, and my mother came with me.” |
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The New Yorker - April 28, 2021 Now the biggest barrier to change is the will of our politicians to take serious climate action. |
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ABC News - May 3, 2021 The May 2 tornado outbreak comes after an extremely quiet April for severe weather. |
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EurekAlert! - April 28, 2021 During the summer of 2020, especially June and July, periods of extreme heavy rainfall occurred in China's Yangtze River Valley (YRV). These rain events caused the severest floods for the region since the summer of 1998. |
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Yahoo!News Canada - May 2, 2021 At the end of every year, Environment Canada (EC) releases the nation's Top Ten Weather Stories. The list has been compiled since 1996. It features top weather stories that captivated Canadians from across the country. |
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Physics Today - April 30, 2021 Although practitioners of medieval meteorology used physical data to make practical predictions of weather, the theoretical basis of the science was mistaken. |
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Phys.org - May 3, 2021 A new study found overlooked tsunami hazards related to undersea, near-shore strike-slip faults, especially for coastal cities adjacent to faults that traverse inland bays. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
NE TX....AR....N, C LA....N, C MS....W, C TN....W, C KY....S IN....S OH....N WV....SW PA
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
SE CO....SW KS....OK Panhandle....TX Panhandle....NW NM
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
NE TX....AR....N, C LA....N, C MS....W, C TN....SE MO....W, C KY....C, S IL....IN....OH....N WV....W PA
(QPF 1 - 3")
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
(potential for temperatures below 15 deg F; threats for snow and/or ice above 2-4")
Isolated Locations In
NW, C ON
(Wet Snow; 2 - 4")
Isolated Locations In
Far E QC....Labrador
(Snow; 4 - 8")
Isolated Locations In
S AB....C, E MT....SW ND....W SD....N WY
(Wet Snow, Sleet; 2 - 4")
EXCESSIVE HEAT POTENTIAL
(Temperatures At Or Above 95 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
S CA....AZ....C, S NM....C, S TX
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
EUMETSAT
The strength of the conjoined Saharan + Indian heat ridge complex is enough to deflect shortwaves further north, thus cutting back on thunderstorm production in Iraq and Iran. The latest impulse is over Turkmenistan and weakening. Another impulse in western Anatolia may dig enough to produce scattered convection across Kurdistan and the northern third of Persia during the new week.
But that subtropical high is nudging northward, further limiting potential for needed precipitation while also turning up the thermometer across the Levant eastward into the Indus River watershed. A new concern is that the tropical wave season is starting early, as evidenced by the convective circulation nearing the Horn of Africa. Some of the computer models show a cyclone in the Arabian Sea after May 16.
HIMAWARI 8
Kochi University
Typically as we get into Northern Hemisphere summer, the Madden-Julian Oscillation will gravitate below the Equator. The opposite is happening in late spring, with the MJO impulse suddenly expanding in a Phase 7 position and lessening its influence on the Bay of Bengal. So far the wave is not feeding the polar westerlies, but does have an attachment to the subtropical jet stream that runs below Hawaii toward Baja California. This type of configuration often implies strong cold frontal passages from west to east from China into the U.S., a severe weather "marker" for the central third of the lower 48 states while Canada remains mostly cool and stable. Note the mostly warm and dry look of Australia away from the thunderstorms along its Pacific Ocean shoreline.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
The makings of a Sonoran heat ridge are clearly visible on this satellite image. The repeated presence of ridging in California and the Southwest leads to dryness of soils and warmth, and in time the 500MB core over Mexico will rise northward to match the surface heat signature. An offshore upper low may soon phase with a shortwave moving into the Gulf of Alaska, and that combinant feature is why thunderstorms will probably start to increase over the Great Plains and Texas by the middle of the new week.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
There indeed is a Nor'easter off of the New England coastline! This system had an inverted trough attached, which set off hail-bearing thunderstorms in parts of the Mid-Atlantic before the storm consolidated and headed away. A new storm with a warm/dry/capped intrusion is oncoming through the Great Plains, and may trigger some strong convection in parts of Dixie into E TX on Sunday.
Cooler and drier air has overtaken much of the lower half of South America. But most attention has turned to the Amazon Basin and equatorial Atlantic Ocean, where the tropical waves and deep oceanic moisture fetch are bringing thunderstorms. In a few weeks, the axis of warm, unstable air will start to move northward, perhaps setting up an early start to the 2021 hurricane season.
METEOSAT
EUMETSAT
An impressive oceanic storm well to the west of the British Isles will continue a steady eastward march into the European subcontinent, eventually creating a full-latitude trough axis from the United Kingdom to Tunisia. Besides keeping most of the British Isles and the European cool and showery, the disturbance will pump up a vigorous heat ridge across Russia into the Balkan Peninsula. A closed low will, in turn, form just north of the Caucasus, and may actually help wheat interests in the Ukraine via development of showers and thunderstorms.
You can easily see how the African ITCZ has sprung back to life, with multiple, westward-moving waves and abundant convection from the Indian Ocean into the Cape Verde vicinity (including much of the Congo Basin). Again, this is a red flag for the upcoming tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic Basin (excessive and strong formations), with the Saharan heat ridge dust plumes in control of the northern third of the continent. Nations below the Congo River look much hotter than normal with sporadic diurnal thunderstorm activity.
