WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, March 28, 2026; MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

[Larry Cosgrove]

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

(Four To Ten Days From Now)

 

A Rude Awakening To Severe Weather Season

METEOBLUE

UQAM (4)

ECMWF (4)

TrueWx.Com (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (3)

April 3 - 6 is the time period I am really getting concerned about.

We remain in a semizonal flow configuration, with very cold air in Canada and mostly mild/warm conditions in the USA. Storms over the northern Pacific Ocean will track eastward, and take a temporary turn digging into the Pacific Northwest and north central states. During the process the disturbances will expand with a trough attached to the south, passing through the Intermountain Region and Great Plains. Introduction of colder air into an already unstable set-up (dryline against deep tropical moisture fetch) should spawn an elongated area of severe thunderstorms from Texas into the Midwest, eventually expanding eastward past the Appalachian Mountains into the Atlantic Coastal Plain.

I do not see a return of any prominent/long-lasting colder air behind this system or the one that follows in the extended range (visible on numerical models over the Pacific Northwest at 240 hours). The cold/snow threshold should remain near the and above the Canadian Border, although some frozen precipitation may appear over the northern Intermountain Region, Great Lakes and New England. On the other hand, chances for truly hot weather should be confined to the Desert Regions, South Texas and Florida during the medium range.