WEATHERAmerica WINTER SEASON (DJFM) OUTLOOK; Thursday, October 30, 2025; PART THREE

[Larry Cosgrove]

EUROPE

A mostly cool winter with few major temperature deviations. The fact that negative thermal anomalies get far into the Sahara Desert, however, suggests that one or two cA regimes may follow a storm track involving the Mediterranean Sea and Danube Valley.

MIDDLE EAST, PERSIA

A scattershot temperature pattern in winter across the Levant, Persia and Pakistan usually is accompanied by an alternation of polar air masses and quick insertions of tropical air from eastern Africa, the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, So chances for snow in the higher elevations of Turkey, Iraq, and Iran into Afghanistan seem more likely, converting to heavy rain and intense thunderstorm events in March.

ASIA

The extensive warming signal across Siberia is most likely a vast blocking ridge. Whereas very cold air seems likely west of the Ural Range, the more moderate regime in central and eastern Russia will allow for cold air pooling from the Central Asian Republics through South Asia, with an unstable maritime air mass from central and eastern China into the Japanese Archipelago and the Philippines. This looks like an active precipitation pattern for highly populated Asia, with chances for larger cold snap evident as well.

SUMMARY

Given that the most used analog for the upcoming winter season is 2024-25, that somewhat cool period may be repeated in the upcoming DJFM semester. But a colder turn seems possible in late January, and much of February and March with occasional appearances of a cAk vortex near or below James Bay. Snow totals should be a little higher than last year, with added risks for severe winter storms in late January, late February and the middle of March.

There may be one or two credible chances for ice storms in JFM 2026, due to a persistent flat heat ridge straddling Mexico and the Greater Antilles.

It is possible that the cold air could sneak south of the border and the Gulf Coast, however.  The winter may be somewhat laggard since most forecast guidance has a fairly mild and benign November and December.