WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, May 30, 2026; SHORT And MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOKS

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 

Hotter Air Slowly Expands Across The Lower 48 States; Severe Weather Outbreak Probable In Prairie Provinces, North Central U.S.

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

TwisterData.Com (3)

WeatherBELL

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory

You will notice a slow trend toward hotter temperatures across the lower 48 states (possible exception: the Northeast), as ridging at 500MB starts to prevail and the polar westerlies shift above the International Border. As the strongest upper dynamics run from British Columbia into the St. Lawrence Valley, mesoscale disturbances may take up the slack for a while in the near term, providing incentive for heavy showers and thunderstorms either along the Front Range or in patches through Dixie. Because Texas/Oklahoma will have less potential for storms and be under a tropical air mass with more sunshine, hotter values near or above 100 deg F will be more common. Not so in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and New England, which will see yet another northwest flow shortwave that brings clouds, showers, and continued cool air.

The potent severe weather threat in the near term will be from Alberta through Manitoba into Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas. This is a fairly typical risk zone in early June, but this precipitation should not advance past Minnesota and Iowa, since I expect recurvature of the energy toward the Lake Of The Woods and later James Bay. California and the Desert Regions will be hot and dry again, which will be a factor as we move through a summer destined to be quite hot in the West.

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

(Four To Ten Days From Now)

 

Precipitation Potential Slowly Falling Off As Heat Ridge Presence Expands

METEOBLUE

TrueWx.Com (4)

UQAM Meteocentre (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory

With the mean surface storm track getting close to the border with Canada, more room for heat ridging will be evident to the right of the Continental Divide. The West will likely be hotter than what the numerical models are showing, and the same can be said for the south central and Dixie states and much of the Midwest. But once again, the position of the ridge complex will be such that northwest flow frontal structures will slide from Quebec and Ontario down along the Eastern Seaboard, effectively preventing the Interstate 95 corridor from seeing hot air through the first week of June. That could change in the extended period, but the Bermuda High will likely not come to life (creating opportunities for heat) until the second half of June.