TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | NCAR - 19 November 2025The storm’s 252 mph wind gust surpassed the previous record from Typhoon Megi over the Western Pacific in 2010, where a dropsonde measured wind gusts of 248 mph. |
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| | A Better Way to Find Tailored Climate Data EUMETSAT - 19 November 2025 In a recent BAMS study, researchers present a novel method for determining the requirements to be met by products of essential climate variables, tailored to specific climate applications. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
FL
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
FL
(QPF 1 - 3")
Isolated Locations IN
Vancouver Island And City, Queen Charlotte Island, BC
(QPF 1 - 4")
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
N AB....N, C SK....MB....N, C MN....WI....MI....ON....N OH....NW PA....NY (excluding NYC, LI)....W MA....VT....NH....ME....NB....NS....PEI....NL
(Bitter Cold)
Isolated Locations In
MI....WI....N IL....N IN....N OH....ON Peninsula....NW PA....W, N NY
(Snow, In Squalls; 4 - 24")
Scattered Locations In
BC....W AB
(Snow; Mostly Above 2000 Feet; 4 - 36")
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
There is winter in your future. First a storm, and then a nearby cAk vortex!
The well-developed disturbance and trough in the Balkan Peninsula will probably track generally eastward through northern Iraq and Iran over the next week to ten days. By December 16 a new 500MB trough and cold core will take shape over Uzbekistan, with cold advection setting up from Siberia southward through the Caucasus and through Mesopotamia and Persia. The drop in temperature will be steep enough to enable moderate/heavy snow in the Alborz and Zagros Ranges, with more extensive snows in Kurdistan and Georgia into Turkmenistan. The nocturnal freeze line may drop as low as 30 N Latitude in the Middle East and on into the Indus River watershed. If the link with the mega-vortex in far northern Russia continues, the potential for cold and snowfall could linger past the first day of 2026.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
Tropical forcing is very important to your future.
There has been a lot of scuttlebutt on the Internet about the Madden-Julian Oscillation being in Phase 8 and that would pacify the snow lovers in the eastern 2/3 of the USA this month. I posted a map to show you what the phase positions are, and use satellite imagery to see how the current location of MJO related convection fits. Once again, the oscillation is incoherent and is most vibrant in Phases 4 - 6, perhaps expanding into Phase 7. Since there is clear linkage to both a vortex over the Aleutian Islands and the impressive subtropical jet stream which course through Mexico and the Southeast, a strong cold pool motion into the central and eastern portions of North America is probable in about ten days. But the likely storm track scenario would be through the southern and eastern tier of the nation. The look of the cloud pattern is also very favorable for an immense cold wave over central and eastern Eurasia.
Australia is warming up, but there is still strong frontal progression from both Antarctic and Indian air mass sources, which of course argue against pronounced heat waves in the austral summer. But most assuredly, thunderstorms and heavy rain are highly likely along the Pacific coastline of the subcontinent.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
Ask yourself this question: is it a good sign for winter weather if you have strong cold vortices and a well developed subtropical jet stream present entering the West Coast of North America? Curiously in the many discussions that I read on broadcast and social media, I have yet to see any that mention that well-defined southern branch flow! I am not saying that the 1993 and 2021 scenarios may occur, but in both scenarios you had a triple phasing set-up. Some of our forecast models suggest that we could see developments like that, potential for a brutal Arctic air mass rolling down through the Plains into Texas and Dixie, with a cAk vortex dropping into Wisconsin and then sliding eastward. The warm ridging across the American West may amplify into Alaska by the 16-20 day time frame, which would create a weather madhouse to the right of the Rocky Mountains. It is very cold in northern Canada, and this satellite signature could turn into something real troublesome.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
See the cA vortex over the Great Lakes?
There will be no warm-up from the north central states into the Eastern Seaboard, even though the ridge over the Desert and Intermountain Region may briefly expand into the Great Plains and Texas later next week. The subtropical jet stream is in the way of very warm air in the Caribbean and Sargasso Seas, which may be tapped if a major winter storm gets going in the southern and eastern tier of the U.S. in the holiday period (by way of moisture advection and extreme baroclinicity). Another cold pool in the Northwest Territories will edge through the Great Lakes and Northeast in the middle of the new week.
The broad tropical wave and trough in Brazil will create notably heavy rains via thunderstorm production.Another thermal boundary is setting off intense convection along the lower Andes Range and even along coastal central Chile. The near term should bring a strong heat wave to much of southern South America.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
A break from chilly weather in Europe?
It looks like that, as the last storm in the sequence moves on to impact the Middle East and Caucasus. The powerhouse mAk vortex west of the British Isles will drive a strong ridge into Scandinavia, while the subtropical jet stream brings a rare southern disturbance through the Mediterranean Sea That combination brings in mostly air from the Atlantic Ocean over the next ten days.
Curiously, the jet stream flow is quite strong from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean into Morocco. You can see the intense convection approaching West Africa, while the deep mean easterlies and tropical waves are being pushed into the southern half of the African continent. There are even some thunderstorms along the Indian Ocean coastline of South Africa.
