WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 11:45 P.M. CT (Weather Extremes And Global Weather Satellite Images)

[Larry Cosgrove]

TODAY'S FUN LINKS:

GOES Image Viewer

METEOBLUE Satellite Mosaics And Weather

EUMETSAT

Kochi University Himawari 8 Products

Digital Typhoon

FENGYUN Satellite Data Center

India Meteorological Department

CIMSS

 

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

W ON....NE MN....WI....MI....NE IN....N OH....ON Peninsula....PA....NY....NJ....DE....MD....DC....N VA....WV....E KY....C, E TN....N AL

N MS....S AR....N LA....NE TX

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

S FL

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In

NW BC

(QPF 1 - 2")

Isolated Locations In

W ON....NE MN....WI....MI....NE IN....N OH....ON Peninsula....PA....NY....NJ....DE....MD....DC....N VA....WV....E KY....C, E TN....N AL

N MS....S AR....N LA....NE TX

(QPF 1 - 2")

Isolated Locations In

S FL

(QPF 1 - 2")

 

EXCESSIVE HEAT POTENTIAL

(risk of temperatures exceeding 95 deg F)

 

Isolated Locations In

FL Peninsula

Scattered Locations In

CA....NV....C, S ID....W, C WY....W, C CO....UT....AZ....NM....TX....S LA

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF, METEOBLUE, EUMETSAT

 

The "sleepy time" in western Asian weather.

The slowly eroding ridge complex will not qualify as a true subtropical high, as core heights at 500MB will fall below 588dcm in the new week. But the cold air and troughs are still moving through Europe into Russia. And moisture from the ITCZ and Madden-Julian Oscillation has no way to climb north into the Levant or Persia. So an almost routine pattern of fair skies, very warm days and relatively mild or cool nights will be in play through the first week of October. Turkey, the Caucasus, and northern Iran into the Central Asian republics will get brief arrivals of cool values, eventually getting below 40 N Latitude during the new month.

 

HIMAWARI 8

JTWC, METEOBLUE, Digital Typhoon

 

Say a prayer for Luzon Island in the Philippines. And while you are at it, save some for residents of the South China Sea shorelines and Vietnam. Super Typhoon Noru will be making an unwanted visit.

Noru sprung up over the western Pacific Ocean and got caught under a heat ridge, providing an opportunity for excellent outflow and a rapid intensification. The beeline track will go about 75 miles north of Manila, meaning that the northern half of Luzon Island will be exposed to high winds of mainly upslope character. Rainfall chances of up to 36 inches are not out of the question. When the storm jumps into the SCS waters, some intensification will occur as the typhoon makes a run at central Vietnam and breaks up across Indochina. And to make matters worse, the environment is favorable for another case of warm-core cyclogenesis from near the Marianas Trench later in the new week.

Note here that the Madden-Julian Oscillation has extended eastward into the Phases 6 through 8 realm. Connection with the polar westerlies continues, which down the road may have an influence on amplifying the current +PNA/-AO/-NAO 500MB configuration over North America. In the Southern Hemisphere, things are settling down as spring has arrived, and Australia should be trending warmer and drier.

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

The eastern equatorial Pacific Basin is quieting down, so attention turns to the advance of a trough complex across the central and northern waters. The MJO is imparting energy to both the subtropical and polar branches of the jet stream. But the Sonoran heat ridge is inform control of most of the western half of the lower 48 states. Some cooler air isa moving across Canada, but modified by moving downslope from the Rocky Mountains into the Prairie Provinces and Great Plains.

 

GOES EAST

ECMWF, METEOBLUE, NOAA/NESDIS (2)

 

Ian will become a hurricane soon. Over very warm waters along its entire route from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico (landfall Thursday morning near Cedar Key FL), little in the way of opposing winds, and excellent room for outflow, this storm has a fair chance of tearing up the neck and Peninsula of the Sunshine State with winds as high as 150 mph. Tornadoes will be an issue once the center comes inland, as a character change to extratropical will get underway as the warm core starts to interact with colder air and energy in the diffuse trough east of the Mississippi River. The track scenario has the vestiges moving along or just west of the Atlantic coastline, with potential for widespread heavy rain as the system may slow down in the Mid-Atlantic next weekend.

Cold fronts are still marching through the lower half of South America. There may actually be some precipitation in the central and southern portions of Chile, with a small cooling trend into Argentina. Note the drying trend along and above the ITCZ in Brazil into Venezuela,

 

METEOSAT

ECMWF, METEOBLUE, EUMETSAT

 

No, this is NOT your imagination. After a summer filled with grotesque heat bursts, that strong cold low in Iceland is dropping through the British Isles into central Europe during early week. This means sharply colder temperatures in much of the subcontinent, although some recovery is probable from France south and west by next weekend as the polar regime lifts into western Russia and the Ukraine.

The ITCZ is active across all of equatorial Africa. If the waves were weaker, and increasingly absent or further south, the chance for tropical cyclone growth in the Maximum Development Region would be nearing its end. Granted, the shearing wind profiles will limit options for warm-core systems via shearing. But Hermine-like storms and the occasional Caribbean or Sargasso Sea formation case are still on the table through the next two or three weeks. Then we may go silent in the Atlantic Basin.