WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, March 28, 2026; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

A Stormy, Mild Configuration That Could Lead Toward A Warm West Vs. Cool East Scenario

CIMSS (2)

NOHRSC (2)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

HPRCC/University Of Nebraska (2)

Environment Canada

WeatherBELL (9)

March has followed a very pronounced warm and largely dry pattern, the only areal exception being the Midwest/Great Lakes which has had increased rainfall amounts with occasional storms and cold frontal passages. Most analogs quiet down the pattern in terms of temperature diversity in the lower 48 states, with remnants of the cold air in Canada making a few ruins into the lower latitudes of the USA. You may notice that the ENSO 3.4 signature is now just below the 0 deg C differential, in other words a flat neutral reading. We will be a neutral/positive for April, which often is concurrent with severe thunderstorm potential highest in the Great Plains and Mississippi River watershed. Thermal profiles may get very warm in California as well as the Desert/Intermountain Region, with colder air generally confined to Interstate 80 and northward to the right of the Rocky Mountains.

This configuration is very favorable for MCS development in Texas and Louisiana, and I think that the convective risk will remain through the first ten days of May. I bring this up because if we should get clustering and organization of intense thunderstorms, huge rainfall amounts may be produced along with some tornadoes and hail. Any rain we see in the next two months could diminish drought potential. Which, to be honest, is probably going to be present and a driver for heat waves from the West Coast into the lower Mississippi Valley in the JJAS time frame. In the next three weeks as I construct the summer forecast, I am already seeing similarities to 1980, 2016, and 2023. 1976 is also still possible, which would feature considerably less dryness in the middle chamber of the nation while also presenting an unusually hot autumn in the Heartland. For now, concentrate on thunderstorm and derecho chances in both the typical tornado risk alleys as well as for broad Mesoscale Convective System potential. Different from derechos, and with slower, wetter and windier outcomes.

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, March 28, 2026 at 11:05 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2026 by Larry Cosgrove

All rights reserved.
This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the author.