TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | A River Crisis Is Unfolding in the American West (may require subscription) National Geographic - 24 June 2026 The Colorado River has been struggling for decades, but this summer could bring it to the brink, threatening endangered wildlife and communities. |
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| | "Weather Jiujitsu" Could Help Us Combat Extreme Weather Arizona State University - 25 June 2026 According to a recently published essay, controlling extreme weather may be a real possibility in the future—and one that researchers should begin exploring now as these extremes happen more frequently. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
AZ....SE UT....SW CO....NM....TX....OK....AR....LA....MS....AL....FL....GA....SC....NC....VA....WV....KY....TN....MO Boot Heel
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
W, C ON....Upper MI
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
AZ....SE UT....SW CO....NM....TX....OK....AR....LA....MS....AL....FL....GA....SC....NC....VA....WV....KY....TN....MO Boot Heel
(QPF 1 - 3")
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Numerous Locations In
MT....C, E WY....SD....ND....N, C MN....W ON....S MB....S SK....SE AB
Scattered Locations In
CA Interior And Deserts....AZ....NV....C, S ID....UT....CO....NM....W, C TX....OK....AR....Extreme S MO....KS....NE
Isolated Locations In
FL....S AL....GA....SC
(a review of important weather features around the world)
FENG YUN
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; CMA
Yes, this is the middle of summer, but....
This is ridiculous. The core of the heat ridge over Saudi Arabia has sp-plit, with the more northern portion encompassing all of Iran and as far north as Turkmenistan. Reviewing model data, aside from a few thunderstorms around the Bosporus, Black Sea and the Alborz Range, most of southwestern Asia will suffer from unrelenting sun, extreme heat and in coastal areas oppressive humidity. There is no realistic chance of major shifts in this pattern until perhaps the second week of September. The monsoonal fetch has weakened and shifted further east, and the ITCZ is strictly westward-driving and cannot get through the thick, compressed atmosphere of the subtropical high. Afghanistan and Pakistan will deal with the "heat/drought" scenario and soo will the desertified nation of Central Asia, including Mongolia.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
As Typhoon Bavi moves into eastern China and into history, will notice a hyperactive Madden-Julian Oscillation with four developed tropical waves over the western/central Pacific Basin.If any one of these disturbances merges with the polar westerlies (which have dipped to lower latitudes, heat ridge formation would amplify in western North America, exacerbating the hot West vs. cool East divide during the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods. Meanwhile, Indonesia is getting the El Nino "heat/drought treatment" and the ITCZ has pulled northward. The monsoonal moisture feed is actually extending to the Philippines, with a weak presence in Indochina through the interior of the PRC.
Generally fair skies are seen across Australia and New Zealand. A frontal structure through the center of the subcontinent, with a trough and front over and below Tasmania represent chances for cool and wet weather in an otherwise dry set-up.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
Ridging across the western half of North America continues to be stronger than forecast by model guidance, with mostly fair and hot/dry conditions the rule from Alberta and Saskatchewan through the Desert and Intermountain Regions. The presence of a seemingly stable Gulf of Alaska Low favors continuation of the 500MB longwave configuration through mid-September. There are also equatorial waves which may yet pose a threat to the Mexican shoreline and Hawaiian Islands.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
Rdging over the western half of North America and a trough through the eastern portions of the continent tell the story: a mostly hot and dry western 2/3 and a moist, generally neutral to cool temperature profile across the eastern third of the continent. There is no real forcing going on, so thunderstorms will remain disorganized and diurnal in character east of the Rocky Mountains through the new week.
The ITCZ is quite strong across the northern hemisphere , with one massive wave cluster over and below Central America, and another impulse from Colombia into Bolivia and western Brazil. The intense cyclones over the Southern Hemisphere are holding together well through Chile and Argentina and the Rio De La Plata countries, but fall apart upon reaching the southern Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation will be locally heavy across the southern third of the continent with colder temperatures during the next ten days.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Fears of another brutal heat wave in northern Europe are probably unjustified...
But notice that I did not say "all" of the subcontinent! In fact, the jet stream and embedded thunderstorms will translate slightly to the north, which for a time may yield some uncomfortable heat into northern France and Germany. But as menacing as the western Mediterranean Sea looks (and trust me, it is...), there is no model guidance that shows a shift of the core 500MB heights any further north than southern Italy. If you review projections through July 21, the area from Spain through southernmost France, the Italian, Balkan/Greco peninsulas and Anatolia will be the focus for Saharan air that picked up a marine humid layer has nowhere to go, as a strong trough and polar air mass is likely to control much of the northern and central European Union.
In a "typical" El Nino episode, the African ITCZ will be reduced to a few thunderstorms roaming near and above the Equator. Alas, the discontinuity is rife with intense convection all the way from the Horn Of Africa to the Cape Verde Islands. If it were not for the shearing westerly wind profiles in the vicinity of the equatorial Atlantic Basin, we might well be looking at an active hurricane season. But the westerlies are present, as is the dual confinement pattern presented by stout Saharan and Kalahari heat ridges. Antarctic cold fronts are not making any northward progress beyond the coastal communities of South Africa.
