TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | Arizona State University - 21 May 2024 A recent study utilized a new modeling technique to determine that forest thinning would increase water supplies in Arizona's Kaibab National Forest. |
|
|
---|
|
| | Inside Climate News - 31 May 2024Medical students are pushing their schools to teach more about the health impacts of climate change. |
|
|
---|
|
| | University of Texas at Arlington - 20 May 2024New research shows that climate change has led to decreased pollen production from plants and less pollen diversity than previously thought. |
|
|
---|
|
|
|
|
|
WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
WA....OR....N NV....ID....W MT....WY....W. C CO....NW NM....E AZ....UT
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
E NM....W TX And Panhandle....OK....SE KS....S MO....AR....NW MS....TN....W NC....VA....WV
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
C, S FL
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
NY....CT....RI....MA....VT....NH....ME....C, S QC
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
NY....CT....RI....MA....VT....NH....ME....C, S QC
(QPF 1 - 2")
Isolated Locations In
C, S FL
(QPF 1 - 2")
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
CA Deserts....SE OR....C, S ID....NV....AZ....UT....NM....CO....WY....S MY....Far W SD....W NE....W KS....OK....AR....TX....LA....MS....AL...FL....GA....SC....E NC
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
If you want relief (rain, thunder and cooler temperatures), try the Caucasus.
In keeping with apparent weather of the past seven years or so, a brutal heat ridge has blown up across northern Africa, the Middle East, Persia and the Indus River watershed. The ridge complex will start a north and east growth pattern next weekend, which will deliver the extreme readings as far north as southern Siberia and Mongolia. Climatology of Saharan +Persian subtropical highs can allow for a weakness in the Zagros and Alborz ranges and on into Kurdistan, so brief orographic showers and thunderstorms are possible in higher elevations. But for most living in a wide area stretching from Morocco to northern India and south through the Sahel into Yemen and Oman, the chances for rain are but a distant memory.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
The Madden-Julian Oscillation has become incoherent, and may be reforming soon in concert with the Asian Monsoonal fetch that is currently affecting the southern and eastern rim of the continent. Most of the numerical models are trying to form a closed low over the Indian subcontinent, which would increase emphasis on thunderstorms and precipitation further north and west and could reach the Himalayan foothills in the 11-15 day range. The convective array for now is the pulse type, mostly diurnal but sometimes forming pre-sunrise along the shorelines,
Note the strong cold frontal push approaching New Zealand and Oceania. The cool intrusions will be getting stronger form now on, and will take temperatures down in most of Australia, with stratiform rainfall across the southern half of the subcontinent.
GOES WEST
![image.png](https://groups.google.com/group/weatheramerica/attach/d896b819786c8/image.png?part=0.7&view=1)
NOAA/NESDIS
One of the ways you can tell that a classic La Nina is developing is that at any time of year, a Gulf of Alaska Low (vortex cold season) is present. The response will mean a normal to cool temperature regime in the West (coolest BC, WA, and OR) and New England/Maritime Provinces with extreme heat a persistent problem between the Continental Divide and the Potomac Valley. Thunderstorms will become more numerous in southern Canada and the northernmost USA. This is what the full disc satellite view can tell you and prepare what is likely to happen. The heat in the south central states will expand out, maybe reaching the Interstate 90 corridor by next weekend. And just think what could happen when an mAk gyre gets going after Halloween....
GOES EAST
![image.png](https://groups.google.com/group/weatheramerica/attach/d896b819786c8/image.png?part=0.5&view=1)
NOAA/NESDIS
One of the arguments that a tropical system will not develop in Cuba or the Bahamas is that shearing west/southwest flow is present with the subtropical jet stream. This is clearly visible on satellite imagery and normally would not allow for convection or winds to spread into the Gulf of Mexico. But as we have seen with the past hurricane season, many systems in similar condition got a name anyway. This feature could bring substantial precipitation to the Florida Peninsula on June 9-10, but I am wary of any other impacts from a disturbance that has great moisture but entirely the wrong upper air profile. Of more concern is the cold front and shortwave riding over top of the Texas heat ridge. That feature will almost surely trigger severe weather across the Great Lakes and the Northeast on Sunday.
Consider the packed ITCZ in the Amazon Basin and Caribbean shoreline. It is far too early in the season for a "Cape Verde" type development, But as move into the heart of summer, beyond the upper westerlies and the Saharan Air Layer (again, I think mid-August), the northward shift of the discontinuity and the expansion of deep mean easterlies will set off major problems for the Greater Antilles and U.S. shorelines of the western Atlantic Basin. See also the cold frontal [penetration through Chile and Argentina, and the vast interior warm and dry condition in the continent.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Europe has latched on to a pattern for summer that may be hard to break. Storms and cold fronts form the northern Atlantic Ocean progress eastward, then break up over the central chamber of the subcontinent. The ECMWF panels show this scenario through the month of June, where they only serious heat occurs (occasionally) in the Balkan Peninsula , Asia Minor and Russia. Shower and thunderstorm potential is present generally every three days, with hail chances in the British Isles and Scandinavia (when upper lows are well-defined).
The ITCZ is lightning up in equatorial Africa, but southwest flow aloft in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean will stop any growth or circulation formation. Once again, the African La Nina pattern of hot and dry north (Saharan heat ridge), moist south (tropical waves and MCS cases) and warm/dry South (Kalahari subtropical high) are in firm control.