TODAY'S FUN LINKS: |  | NASA - 19 July 2023 The first views from NASA's newest storm-watching satellites offer scientists a new tool for understanding the inner workings of storms over shorter time spans. |
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| | University of Copenhagen - 25 July 2023Important ocean currents that redistribute heat, cold, and precipitation between the tropics and the northernmost parts of the Atlantic region will shut down around the year 2060 if current greenhouse gas emissions persist. |
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| | University of California, Santa Barbara - 20 July 2023Predicting the droughts that cause severe food insecurity in the Eastern Horn of Africa is now possible, with months-long lead times that allow for measures to be taken that can help millions of the region’s farmers and pastoralists prepare for and adapt to the lean seasons. |
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| | Arizona Department of Water Resources - 28 July 2023In the wake of record winter snowpacks in the mountains and a long, lingering (relatively) cool spring, who could have seen Arizona's record-breaking summer heat coming? As it turns out, someone did. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
MN....SE ND....E SD....E NE....IA....MO....NE OK....N AR....W TN....W KY....IL....IN....OH....SE Lower MI....ON Peninsula....W PA....MD....DC
VA....WV....E KY....E TN....W NC....N SC....N, W GA....SE AL...FL
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes
N NV....C, E OR....C, E WA....Far E BC....Far W AB....W MT....W WY....NW CO....NE UT
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
MN....SE ND....E SD....E NE....IA....MO....NE OK....N AR....W TN....W KY....IL....IN....OH....SE Lower MI....ON Peninsula....W PA....MD....DC
VA....WV....E KY....E TN....W NC....N SC....N, W GA....SE AL...FL
(QPF 1 - 4")
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
CA....NV....Far S ID....UT....AZ....NM....CO....S WY....SW NE....KS....OK....TX....LA....AR....C, S MO....S IL....S IN....S OH....WV....VA....NC....SC
GA....FL....AL....MS....TN....KY
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Just a slight westward drift to the heat ridge.
The mesoscale disturbance crossing the Caspian Sea into Turkmenistan is actually an important indicator that suggests a weakness developing in the elongated subtropical high stretching from the central Atlantic Ocean into the Taklamakan Desert. Most of the numerical models put the core of the ridge complex in the vicinity of Cyprus by August 15. But the anticyclone is so strong and broad that the edge of the hot weather will be over the western Indus River watershed. The monsoonal moisture may nudge into southeastern Pakistan, but the Middle East and Persia, and for that matter Anatiolia and northern Africa are stuck in the atmospheric furnace through the first week of September. Few chances for rain, but plenty of cases of surface readings between 40 and 55 deg C until that time.
HIMAWARI 8
JTWC (2); Kochi University
Khanun seems to be making a comeback. Of sorts...
During the past few days, we have seen Khanun go from a well-organized, menacing typhoon to a dry-air infested weak circulation, The disturbance has started to regroup, and is now classified as a tropical storm. JTWC forecasters suggest that the circulation will move over enough warm water to jump back to typhoon status, then clip Kyushu on its way to the Korean Peninsula. The greatest danger is the chance for flooding rains in southern Japan. This system will not contribute to the polar westerlies, and thus not be an influence downstream on North America.
The Asian monsoon and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, however, continue to input the westerlies in a manner that virtually assured a cold Canada vs. warm/hot U.S. scenario for the foreseeable future. The merger of energy and moisture from these sources are also tied to continued severe weather threats from the Great Plains to the East Coast above Interstate 40.
Australia is following the "El Nino playbook", with widespread fair and warm weather, despite the winter calendar date. But New Zealand is being influenced by Antarctic air after a cold frontal passage.
GOES WEST
METEOBLUE, NOAA/NESDIS
Hurricane Dora is entering the central Pacific Ocean. While the circulation may weaken, Dora could still be at category 1 status as it reaches the International Dateline in about a week. The hurricane will stay south of the Hawaiian Islands. Tropical Storm Eugene is getting better organized, and may still reach minimal hurricane intensity as it grazes the Los Cabos vicinity of Baja California by midweek.
The strong conjoined heat ridge is very obvious on GOES WEST imagery covering the western and southern tiers of North America. Note that the ridge complex has almost obliterated the monsoonal fetch over Mexico, which could lead to some extremely hot weather in Texas and the northern Mexican states during the new week.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS (2)
Although some very energetic disturbances are emerging from the Cape Verde Islands, the twin demons of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season in 2023 (Saharan Air Layer and upper westerlies) continue to eliminate threats for tropical cyclone development. The amount of hot, dry and dust-laden air is incredible, and has spread as far west as Texas as well as into the Caribbean Sea theater.
The heat ridging in North America covers the western and southern tiers of the lower 48 states. A persistent trough or weakness connected with a cold closed low over Hudson Bay continues to eject mesoscale impulses that trigger multiple cases of intense thunderstorms from the High Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. But Texas and the Deep South remain very hot, and mostly dry. The monsoon over the Intermountain Region is already breaking up and will merge with energy over moving out of Alberta and Montana on August 6. The Midwest and much of the Atlantic Coastal Plain should mostly stay out of the heat through the Labor Day weekend.
A large cold low over the southern Pacific Ocean west of Chile is slow moving, allowing the dry integrated polar air mass to modify across the southern two-thirds of South America. The Amazon Basin is mostly dry, since impulses from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean have been weakened by westerlies aloft and injection of the Saharan Air Layer.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Europe appears to be looking cooler through the rest of the month. The Saharan heat ridge has failed against cold pooling in Germany and Poland. Note the strong 500MB closed low and trough that covers the eastern half of the subcontinent. Heat will occasionally push up into the Iberian, Italian, and Balkan Peninsulas, however. The British Isles, France, and Scandinavia may trend below normal for temperature as more storms and frontal structures advance over the northern Atlantic Ocean.
Curiously, the very active ITCZ is having little luck in creating opportunities for Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones. There is so much hot, dry and dust-laden air coming across the Middle East and northern Africa that each impulse ingests the cTw values and disintegrates. There will be opportunity in Mozambique, Tanzania and Kenya however for thunderstorms and a possible future disturbance from the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar.
