WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, August 2, 2026; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

Demon Heat Ridge In The Heartland (And How Long It Might Last?)

CIMSS (3)

CMA/WMO

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

University Of Nebraska/HPRCC (2)

Environment Canada

WeatherBELL (9)

Sick of that heat ridge yet?

The big subtropical high has retrogressed into the West due to the presence of the trough complex across the Great Lakes and Appalachia. But as the disturbed area and cooler air lifts out into the western Atlantic in the near term, the  vast subtropical high will expand rightward, and likely conjoin with the resilient Bermuda High. The combined 500MB ridging will likely last at least three weeks before another polar air mass crosses Canada and turns into the Eastern Seaboard. In this manner most of the lower 48 states will be stuck in the "hazy, hot and humid/Dog Days" forecast for the greater part of August.

Along and above the International Border, strong storms and frontal structures should move between blocking signatures strung out along the Arctic Circle and the aforementioned vast subtropical high over the lower 48 states. This is a scenario that will lead to repeated severe weather events, some of which will curve rightward through the Great Lakes and the Northeast. The separation between the two anticyclones may reform along the Mississippi River by the 16-20 day range. This trans-ridge weakness may create potential for haze and diurnal thunderstorms from the Midwest and Dixie into Appalachia.

The GFS series earlier had a tropical cyclone threat along the Atlantic shoreline, but recent runs of the American model seem to have pulled back from that idea. Conditions in the Atlantic Basin are quite unfavorable for a depression to form, this despite the fact that the ITCZ is quite active in equatorial Africa, this despite El Nin o climatology which argues for a very dry period from the Cape Verde Islands to Eritrea and Djibouti.

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 2:45 A.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2026 by Larry Cosgrove

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