WEATHERAmerica WINTER SEASON (DJFM) OUTLOOK; Thursday, October 30, 2025; PART 1

[Larry Cosgrove]

ABSTRACT

Using a weighted selection of analog years (above) bearing synoptic scale similarities to the period September 1 - October 15, 2025, a forecast for temperature and precipitation was constructed on a month-by-month basis for November through March of next year. These are presented in order: WEATHERAmerica, compiled analog for temperature, favored numerical model, precipitation potential and 500MB heights. Outlines for temperature anomalies are shown for the European and Asian theaters. There is also a "post-mortem" discussion about the outcome of the 2025 tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic Basin and use of ACE scores for analogs to the current season. 

Sunspot Activity

1970 so far has shaped up to be the best solar analog for 2025. Sunspots should take a drop between now and the next five years.

Northern Hemisphere Snow And Ice Coverage

Everything in the higher latitudes points toward something very similar to the DJFM winter semester of 2023-24. Warm start, little snow/ice, but a cold finish.

Extent Of Ice Cover: 2024

Snow Cover Analog: 2024

500MB Comparison Test 

Incredibly, both the seasonal and ongoing autumn 500MB height profiles are best reflected in the depictions of one year previous, 2024 (used twice for this parameter average).

JJAS Surface Temperature Anomaly Similarity 

With the exception of the rain-cooled patch in the Great Plains and Central Texas, the 2024 JJAS summer was a good match for the temperature anomaly display.

September 1 - October 15, 2025 Temperature Anomaly Comparison Test

The early autumn temperature array of 2023 is quite similar to that of 2025. Also similar were the displays of 2013 and 2022.

Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Review 

2024 is a reasonably close match for the global SST pattern of the past few months. 2013 could also be used.

Outcome Of Tropical Cyclone Season In The Atlantic Basin

This is a rare tropical cyclone season where, during a La Nina, eastern equatorial Pacific Basin totals exceed the output of the Atlantic Ocean, But the increasing potential for more named storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea suggests that there could be some evening up of the final number. There is a suggestion that the -ENSO neutral character may transition to a weak El Nino in the spring, which in turn will favor more variability and greater chances for cold intrusions in North America to the right of the Rocky Mountains.

ENSO State Comparison Test:

YELLOW suggests MODERATE resemblance to current ONI. RED represents a strong similarity.

Comparison Year Analogs:

1962, 1967, 1981, 1984, 2001, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018

It appears that a slow turn from a near-moderate La Nina to a positive-neutral ENSO is probable this winter. So while a mostly inactive, mild scenario is likely through New Year's Day, the chance for more high-latitude ridging and trough amplification (with dual or triple jet stream configuration) will be present after the January Thaw.