WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, August 26, 2023; Weather Extremes And Global Satellite Imagery

[Larry Cosgrove]

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)

S MO....N AR....TN....S KY....VA....NC....SC....N GA....N AL

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

ID....MT....WY....CO....NM....W, N TX....S OK

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

ME....NH....VT....MA....N, C NY

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms

(Large Hail, Microbursts, Isolated Tornadoes)

N, C MB....Far NW ON....Far N QC

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

Scattered Locations In

S MO....N AR....TN....S KY....VA....NC....SC....N GA....N AL

(QPF 1 - 5")

Isolated Locations In

N, C MB....Far NW ON....Far N QC

(QPF 1 - 2")

Isolated Locations In

ID....MT....WY....CO....NM....W, N TX....S OK

(QPF 1 - 3")

 

EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK

(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)

 

Scattered Locations In

BC....AB....MT....ID....E, C WA....E, C OR....CA....AZ....NV....UT....WY....W SD....W, C NE....KS....CO....NM....TX....OK....SW MO....AR....LA....MS....AL....FL

GA....SC....NC....TN

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

Close, yet so far.

This weather pattern set-up may not make many residents of the Levant and Persia feel any better, since most areas below Kurdistan and the Alborz Range will still be "hotter than hell" through the first week of September. But there are agents of change in the atmosphere which ultimately will allow for some precipitation and more reasonable temperature displays after yet another brutally hot summer. The elongated Saharan/Persian heat ridge complex is showing signs of parceling, or breaking into segments. Strong storms and troughs will progress through the length of eastern Europe and Russia, so those living in Anatolia, the Caucasus, and the Central Asian Republics will see some relief even in the near term (cold fronts may get as far south as northern Iran and Afghanistan). These changes are a preview of more impressive shifts in air masses that will start to infiltrate southwestern Asia. But the process will take two or three more weeks before places like Tehran Iran and Homs Syria will see any downward tendency in highs and lows.

 

HIMAWARI 8

JTWC; METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

An active, yet confused, tropical weather pattern in the western Pacific Basin.

Typhoon Saola is spinning around just off the east coast of Luzon, and may undergo an intensity boost in the next 24-36 hours before finally heading northwest into Taiwan and the eastern PRC later in the new week. Tropical Storm Damrey over the open Pacific waters will likely founder, and move into a merger with the polar westerlies to the right of the Japanese Archipelago. The Madden-Julian Oscillation remains stuck in Phases 6, 7, and 8, but has weakened significantly. Note also that the Asian monsoon is more diffuse, with clear conditions across India and the Bay of Bengal. Impacts on weather in North America for the next two weeks appear to be limited.

A drier and warmer trend is evident across Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand. This shift is possibly tied to the growing El Nino episode.

 

GOES WEST

METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS

 

A tropical depression may be forming over equatorial waters well to the southwest of Mexico. But note the lack of a Central American Gyre. Should a disturbed area arise from Panama into Honduras, odds on a significant hurricane threat to the Mexican Riviera and Los Cabos will rise rapidly.

See also the Sonoran heat ridge, which now covers a stretch from Texas into Oregon and California. This feature has been persistent for most of this summer and will return in a big way next weekend top bring an extensive heat wave to much of the lower 48 states.

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NHC; NOAA/NESDIS (2)

 

The National Hurricane Center has declared Tropical Depression 10 over the Strait of Yucatan, which could be a threat to Florida within four days . Hurricane Franklin appears to be headed for a northward track that may involve Bermuda, and later Newfoundland, with a cold frontal interaction that could bring many problems to Atlantic Canada next weekend.

The character of the tropical Atlantic Basin is becoming increasingly hostile for warm-core cyclogenesis. A broad upper low near the Azores and southwest flow above the ocean will limit disturbances exiting the ITCZ from equatorial Africa.

There is a moderate cold front pushing into the Midwest and Southeast. But the heat ridge complex from Texas into the Southwest is very strong. A weak surge of polar air may reach into the Mid-South by Tuesday.

In South America, a fairly dramatic cold frontal passage has reached central Brazil. But much of the continent has a fair, warm/hot, and dry character, with the Antarctic vortex impacting only Tierra Del Fuego.

 

METEOSAT

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

The warmer air is shifting eastward to the Danube Valley and Balkan Peninsula. While many have talked about hot weather in the subcontinent this summer, the truth is that troughs and cold frontal passages have been fairly frequent, and strong enough to bring polar as far south as the Mediterranean countries. In the new week, a very deep storm and trough complex should bring much cooler air to western Europe on and after Tuesday. Severe weather may be abundant to the right of the storm and frontal structure in France and Italy in the next 72 hours.

The ITCZ has two oprime waves, but lack of moisture will cause erasure of these impulses over the course of the next several days. Note the very dry character of the African continent. The two heat ridge complexes, Sahara and Kalahari are eliminating chances for moisture input outside the equatirial reguions.