TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | Texas A&M University - 7 June 2024 Using Galveston Island as an example, researchers modeled the damage that would occur to residential buildings as a result of hurricanes of varying intensities, and also modeled damage with preventative infrastructure in place. |
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| | University of California, San Diego - 31 May 2024Analysis of NASA satellite images of cyclones on Jupiter reveals that the storms are fueled by processes similar to those acting on Earth. |
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| | The Conversation - 5 June 2024The recently formed Caribbean Climate Adaptation Network aims to connect scientists with communities and government agencies in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and to provide scientific information that can help them prepare for and respond to climate extremes. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
BC....AB....SK....MT
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
AZ....UT....W WY....W, S CO....NM
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
AR....NW MS....TN....KY....IN....OH....WV....N VA....DC...MD....DE....PA....NJ....NY....CT....RI....MA....VT....NH....ME...NS....NB....PEI....S QC
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
AR....NW MS....TN....KY....IN....OH....WV....N VA....DC...MD....DE....PA....NJ....NY....CT....RI....MA....VT....NH....ME...NS....NB....PEI....S QC
(QPF 1 - 3")
Isolated Locations In
BC....AB....SK....MT
(QPF 1 - 2")EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
CA....C, E OR...NV...AZ...UT....C, S ID....MT....S AB....S SK....W ND....SD....NE....SW IA....MO....C, S IL...C, S IN....S OH....S PA....NJ....DE....MD....DC
VA....WV....KY....TN....NC....SC....GA....FL...AL....MS....AR....LA....TX....OK....KS....CO....NM
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Brother, can you spare a raindrop? Move to India if that is the case.
The summer monsoon is slowly making its retrogression pattern, which over the netx ten days will cover most of the Indian subcontinent. But the frightful heatwave across the Middle East and Persia continues unabated, with no visible challenges to the vast and powerful heat ridge complex in sight. Taken literally, the ECMWF scheme points toward a more widespread surge of 60 deg C or higher maxima through Iran, possibly involving Tehran and Qom. Without any hint of atmospheric moisture, which for now will virtually stop at the Indus River.
The analog forecasts show tye monsoonal pulses reaching into southeastern Iranian provinces, and perhaps parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan as well, in later July. The peak of this particular subtropical high will likely be between July 2 and 25. The polar westerlies will not start to descend into the Levant and northern India until the second week of September, which implies a very long period of water scarcity, power issues, and unsafe travel. And remember, the Saharan heat ridge keeps the same type of condition across all of northern Africa, eventually reaching into southern Europe and Asia Minor.
Be safe.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
I continue to emphasize the Asian monsoon, since this feature appears to be building, while still injecting moisture and energy into the polar westerlies. The moisture fetch is forecast to expand into northern India and then Pakistan later in the new week. Thunderstorms, some severe, will be likely along the Asia/Pacific Basin shoreline, with periodic growth and expansion into Borneo and the Philippines. If you watch the progression of the disturbed area, currently tied to the Madden-Julian Oscillation in Phase 3,4, the outflow pattern through the northern Pacific Basin is helping to stimulate the Gulf of Alaska Low. And with that injection comes the formation and growth of the massive Sonoran + Bermudan heat ridge complex, affecting much of the USA.
Stronger cold fronts continue to move through Australia and New Zealandas we begin the austral winter. But moisture so far is limited due to the MJO growth near and above the Equator.
GOES WEST
NOAA/RAMDIS
Speaking of the Gulf of Alaska Low, there are two separate parcels of cold air and energy moving through the northern Pacific Ocean into the mean 500MB position for this climatological feature. Both systems, and others that follow apace, will pass through southern Canada. The northwestern and northeastern states may be subject to some cold frontal passages, but the main impact area for these systems will be the Prairie Provinces, which will be subject to alternation of warm vs. cold temperatures and intense thunderstorms. Keep in mind that anyone living below the path scenario of the disturbances could experience higher winds and at least brief returns of hot air.
GOES EAST
METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
There are just tropical disturbances, and no "Central American Gyre" that would spin up a huge Pacific Basin hurricane or deep moisture fetch. The disturbances are weak, and have some inputs from the Caribbean and Sargasso Seas. This may be the underpinnings of the summer monsoon in Mexico and the Southwest, where heat and dryness take over east of the Rocky Mountains and below Interstate 90 The core of the heat ridges may reach even farther north than that of this past week, which might involve Chicao IL and New York NY in periods of record heat. The vast coverage of the anticyclone will allow the 100 deg F isotherm to remain fairly far south as well (Texas into the Dixie states.
There is a well-defined ITCZ running from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean westward through the Amazon Basin into Ecuador, and beyond. The deep tropical moisture remains over the northern third of the continent, with the middle of South America mostly dry and hot. Strong cold frontal passages continue across Chile and Argentina with sixable rainfall and mountain snow across the Andes Ranges.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
If it were not for the remnants of the trough in western Europe, we might be looking at an extreme heatwave into much of the subcontinent. The cold closed low at 500MB will at least hold the line for France and the British Isles for about four days. Then it looks like an expansion of the Saharan heat ridge will push further north, possibly involving the United Kingdom, The Low Countries and Germany down to the Mediterranean shoreline and Asia Minor. There are still thunderstorm-related issues across the Danube Valley and Balkan Peninsula, however, as we lurch into the hottest part of the European summer.
Africa remains largely dominated by heat and drought. But the ITCZ straddling the Equator is active, and if it were not for hostile shearing winds across the northern Atlantic Basin and the sand/dryness imparted by the Saharan and Kalahari heat ridges, there might be a chance to see an important "Cape Verde" tropical cyclone. But that should change in August; give the process time.
