JJAS SUMMER WEATHER FORECAST; Friday, April 24, 2026; Part 3

[Larry Cosgrove]

EUROPE

Somewhat like last summer, but probably warmer across the northern third of the subcontinent. Greatest chance for a dangerous heat wave would be in July and August in Algeria/Spain/Italy as well as the Ukraine.

MIDDLE EAST, PERSIA

After the jet stream lifts out of Persia in May, a flow of hot/dry air from the Horn Of Africa and Saudi Arabia will flood the Levant and Iran. That said, risks are growing for a tropical cyclone to emerge in the Arabian Sea with a strike zone into Pakistan and India, This should be the eighth straight summer for this kind of temperature alignment, likely a result of climate change.

ASIA

Heat and drought may enmesh most of Asia this summer. El Nino climatology favors this outcome. But a typhoon danger exists in the Philippines and possibly Japan. Note that the Japanese Archipelago and the urbanized East Coast of China could see impressive heat.

SUMMARY

NWS Heat Risk Tool

I lean toward a hot start nationally for later May and June, shifting to a hot West vs. a milder East after July 4. Much of the nation will have at least a warm average in the JJAS time frame.

Tropical cyclone count forecast: 13 Named Storms, 6 Hurricanes, 2 of which will be of major intensity. Highest strike zone risk for any storm would involve Florida and the Eastern Seaboard.

Main heat threats: Greatest West Coast, Desert and Intermountain Regions, Oklahoma/Texas.