WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, January 15, 2006 at 5:05 A.M. ET
WEATHER...@aol.com
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TODAY'S FUN LINK:
Texas Severe Storms
Association - TESSA Homepage
WEATHER SUMMARY THROUGH NEXT 72
HOURS
Although truly heavy snowfall will be an isolated case in the Northeast today (largely influenced by topography and mesoscale disturbances in the 500MB flow), the eventual organization of a blizzard in the upper St. Lawrence Valley and interior New England should serve as a reminder to the "winter is over" crowd that the calendar date reads January 15. Indeed, the low now deepening over the MA Islands will eventually reach cAk vortex status over NL/LBR, and bitter cold will follow the wind and snow through Monday. But the cold values, like the motherlode, are purely transient features and do NOT represent a typical forecast day during either the near or longer term.
Indeed, two new systems are taking shape which will have a more profound impact on conditions in the lower 48 states and across easternmost Canada. A strong heat ridge is setting up over portions of the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This subtropical high shows up on many numerical model panels through January 25, insuring that any low emerging from the Intermountain Region (and there will be several....) will have a ready tap of deep moisture form the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. The other item of note is the storm taking shape along the middle Front Range (attached to another low along the ND and MN border with Canada). Note the potent subtropical jet stream linked with this system, a feature that will play a vivid role in precipitation and wind threats during the following 72-96 hours.
Despite the fact that snow bursts reached as far south as portions of NC and VA yesterday, most of Dixie will enjoy a warming trend through Day 3. And that is not a good thing. Remembering that the low edging into the Great Plains will likely take a path though the Ozark Plateau into the Great Lakes and Laurentian Shield (with impressive linear vorticity array as the system rides over the heat ridge to its southeast), rather extreme lifting and forcing will organize in OK....TX....LA....AR tomorrow. Dew point and instability parameters (LI, CAPE), when placed in context of the striking jet stream configuration (180 knot maximum W TX at 250MB) favor the formation of supercell thunderstorms which may spread as far as extreme S MO....W KY....TN by sunset on Monday. Despite mediocre projections of buoyancy by the 0z Jan 15 run of the NAM scheme, the pocketed, intense UVV display and the classic difluent, high-velocity jet stream configuration suggests a severe weather outbreak across S IN....SW OH....KY....TN....GA....FL Panhandle....AL....MS....E LA on Tuesday afternoon and evening. As we have seen in two previous cases during the past ten days, the high resolution model does not compute the presence of unstable air very well, perhaps due to the time of year and climatology weights in the equation. No matter, as full phasing between the northern and southern branches will again introduce the threat of widespread strong winds from QC through Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday, accompanied by thunderstorms and heavy rain.
A system seen now in the Aleutian Islands should continue a steady east-southeast track into BC....WA....OR....N CA by 72 hours. So after relatively minor precipitation today in the Pacific Northwest, winds and heavy rain (mountain snow) will increase tomorrow night and Tuesday with the cold front and low reaching the shoreline late on Day 3. The advance of the newer system should eliminate the scourge of canyon winds and Santa Ana conditions that are likely to affect much of the Intermountain and Desert Regions during the next day or so.
Short-Range Numerical Weather
Prediction Models
(red dot
indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
RUC NAM GFS-5. RGEM. MM5 UKMET
CRAS SREF COAMPS RAMS
The
Weather Research And Forecasting Model Website
National Centers for Environmental
Prediction Models
Texas A&M Weather
Interface
______________________________________________________________________
Online Weather Information
Guides
AMS Glossary WW2010 Helper Section
Index
Weather Calculator
COMET Case Study Library on the WWW
Climate Normals For The U.S.
Golden Gate Weather ENSO
Page
Weather Discussion
Forums
Eastern US Weather
Forums
CanadianWeather
Weather Information
Plotting/Mapping
Plymouth State Weather
Center
Dr. Bob
Hart's Coolwx.com
U.S. National Satellite Perspectives
Next-Generation Weather Satellite Demonstration
Project
Infrared Visible Vapor
Hawaii Infrared Hawaii Visible
Alaska Infrared Alaska Visible Alaska
Vapor
Canada Satellite
Perspectives
Environment Canada Satellite Image
Directory
Satellite Animations And
Multi-Channel Imagery
RAMSDIS ONLINE
NOAA Polar Satellite
Views Around North America
Quicklook Swaths
Browser
AVHRR Dynamic Tracking Windows
Milan Konecny's NOAA Satellite Views
Savannah-Weather.Com
NOAA HRPT Weather Satellite Images
National Radar
Summaries
National NEXRAD Summary
Environment Canada Radar
Summary
Numerical Model Temperature
Forecasts
Current NWS MOS Forecast
Products
Links To Current Weather Conditions
Around
North America And Worldwide
MesoNet Data
NWS Precipitation Analysis
Pages Current Weather Observations
Ocean Prediction Center - Unified Surface
Analysis
National Data Buoy Center Near Real-Time Polar
Products
Solar, Lunar, Astronomy
Information
MeL: Space &
Astronomy
SpaceWeather.Com
Tonight's Sky Sky & Telescope Interactive Sky
Chart
Human Space Flight - NASA-TV Solar
Terrestrial Activity Report
Satellite-Derived Forecast Products
NOAA/NESDIS/ORA
Forecast Products
Near Real-Time Polar
Products
Upper Air Analyses
Around North America
Upper Air Data From University Of
Wyoming
Aviation Weather
Analyses And Forecasts
Soundings from Commercial
Airliners
Aviation Weather Center
(AWC)
ORA Projects Page
ADDS - Turbulence
Environment Canada Aviation
Products
National Soil
Moisture Levels
Palmer Index Map (For Soil Moisture)
Drought Monitor
Snow And Ice
Coverage
U.S. Recent Snowfall & Snowdepth
Maps SSD Snow Products
Page
___________________________________________________________________________
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging
winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more
total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
(probable trajectory for midlatitude cyclones affecting populous sections of the United States and Canada)
______________________________________________________________________
AWC National Convective Weather Forecast Product
Oklahoma University Daily Real Time Analysis And Forecast System
Experimental 0-3 Hour Convective Weather Forecast Products
Collaborative Convective Forecast Product
Environment Canada Severe Weather Model
Severe Weather Watch Boxes
SPC Watch, Warning and Advisory Display
Local Weather Warnings
College Of DuPage Severe Weather Warnings Page
U.S. Station Weather Probability Forecasts
READY - State Weather
NAM MOS Graphics NGM MOS Graphics
Form For Selecting AVN MOS Bulletins NAM Precip Type Meteograms
______________________________________________________________________
Visible, Infrared, And Water Vapor
High Resolution Satellite And Radar Views:
University Of Washington Weather Graphics Loops
IPS Meteostar
Regional Radar Summaries
Northeast
Southeast
North Central
South Central
Northwest
Southwest
Useful
Television Station And Commercial
Doppler Radar Sites
WeatherMatrix Radar Supersite : TV
Radars
Doppler Radar Images From Government Sources
National Weather Service Doppler
Radars
Environment Canada Doppler
Radars
Experimental
Radar Images From The National Weather Service
National
Lightning Detection Map
StrikeStar US
Experimental Lightning Location
Network
Environment Canada Lightning
Map
BARBADOS Worthing VIRGIN ISLANDS St. Croix
Media Resources, Online Mapping And Travel AidsKevin Brewster Storm Spotting Frequencies Page
TV Station Web Page Directory Radio-Locator
National Traffic and Road Closure Information
MapQuest Maporama Microsoft TerraServer Google Earth
The National Atlas of the United States of America
Where On Earth - Latitude Longitude Finder
Map-It - A GMT3 Map Generator
MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(weather trends through the next
6 to 10 days)
With a vast field
of bitter cold Arctic air across much of Canada and an unseasonably warm ridge
of high pressure locking in across the Greater Antilles and Bahamas, it stands
to reason that a strong baroclinic zone will likely set up across the lower 48
states. But exactly where this "battle zone" line sup is still open to question.
The most recent UKMET version places more emphasis on the colder values, while
the concurrent ECMWF model suggest that the warm readings will hold in place as
far north as a line from Amarillo TX to Boston MA; the 0z Jan 15 GFS panels are
squarely in the middle, as are the GGEM depictions for the same time frame. All
things considered, I suspect that the English equation scenario of a storm track
from TX into VA through the MA Islands is correct. This is the heart of winter,
teleconnections on such a profound heat ridge favor a cA vortex forming over W
ON, and satellite data over the western Pacific Ocean suggests a number of
storms will dig into CA and the Desert Southwest. So I am looking for a positive
tilt, full-latitude trough complex to take shape across the
continent.
The 0z Jan 15 UKMET outlook is alone in taking leftover energy from the Tuesday/Wednesday severe weather threat and tracking a fairly strong disturbance off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Whereas the Southeast will see rain and thunder from this feature (if it develops), parts of middle Appalachia as well as communities just left of Interstate 95 may see mixed types or mainly snow.
Another shortwave, this one far stronger, shows up on NWP model data over the "Four Corners" region by 144 hours with an eventual path (Panhandle Hook fashion) toward the lower Great Lakes. With linkage to the powerful subtropical jet stream plus easy access to the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea moisture sources, another severe weather outbreak and heavy rain event is possible for E TX....E OK....AR....LA....MS....AL....GA....TN....KY....WV....VA....NC....SC. An overrunning setup increases the threat of sleet and freezing rain for parts of the Missouri and Ohio Valley, while snow may be a concern from IA into MI and ON during a January 22-23-24 period. The western states may trend a little colder with enough energy and higher dewpoints present for mainly orographic snowfall off-and-on through 240 hours.
Medium Range Numerical Weather Prediction
Models
(red dot indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
GFS UKMETx ECMWF NOGAPS GGEM MM5x KMA RSM JMA CPTEC GBL Ensembles DGEX EPS Maps
NCEP AVN-GFS
Ensembles NOGAPS Ensembles WRF Hemispheric
Medium Range NWP Verification
Statistics
Climate Prediction Center - D+8 Upper Air
Tools
______________________________________________________________________
Worldwide and International Satellite
Images
Earth Viewer: View Any Location from Any
Satellite
______________________________________________________
GOES 12 (The
Americas, Atlantic Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
GOES 10 (Eastern
Pacific Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
GMS 5 (Asia,
Australia, Pacific Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
METEOSAT 5
(Central Asia)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
METEOSAT 7
(Europe And Africa)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
Arctic Sea
Europe Infrared Europe Visible Europe Vapor
Russia The Middle East The Orient India
Australia New Zealand South America Africa
Antarctica
______________________________________________________________________
International Weather Radar Sites
WeatherMatrix Radar Supersite : World Radar
Data
Domestic And
International Weather Cameras
EarthCam
- Webcam Network
Satellite Images Of Individual Tropical
Systems
NRL Monterey Tropical Cyclone
Page
QuikSCAT
Satellite Images Of
Tropical Regions
GHCC - Interactive GOES-8 Infrared Hurricane
Sector
Atlantic Basin Satellite Services Division - Tropical Atlantic Satellite
Imagery
Mexico And Pacific Coastal
Waters
Central Pacific Ocean
Oceania And Tropical Western Pacific
Ocean
Indian Ocean
Digital Typhoon:
Typhoon Images and Information
Sea
Surface Temperatures
NODC Coastal Water Temperature
Guide
Great
Lakes Sea Grant Coastwatch Homepage
NCODA Sea Surface
Temperatures
NCODA Sea Surface Temperature
Anomaly
NCODA Sea Surface Temperature
Climatology
Marine Weather
Information
WWW Tide/Current Predictor - Site
Selection
Office of Coast Survey - Home - Nautical
Charts
Regional Ocean Forecast System
(ROFS)
NOAA/NCEP WAM Global Swell
Data
Environment Canada Ocean Wave
Forecasts
NOAA WAVEWATCH III Wave Models
(interactive)
Great Lakes Water
Levels
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE
on
Sunday, January 15, 2006 at 5:05 A.M.
ET
Disclaimer:
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be
construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not
affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is
not responsible for content posted or associated with those
sites.
Copyright 2006 by Larry Cosgrove
All rights
reserved.
This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in
whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the
author.