WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, WEATHER HAZARDS And GLOBAL SATELLITE IMAGES, Saturday, August 9, 2025

[Larry Cosgrove]

 

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Waterspouts, Isolated Tornadoes)

FL....GA....SC....C, S NC

SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Waterspouts, Isolated Tornadoes)

 C NM....C, E CO....SE WY....NE....N KS....NW MO....IA....N IL....S WI....NW Lower MI....C ON....N, C QC

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

N SK....N, E MB....NW ON

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Scattered Locations In

FL....GA....SC....C, S NC

(QPF 1 - 4")

Scattered Locations In

C NM....C, E CO....SE WY....NE....N KS....NW MO....IA....N IL....S WI....NW Lower MI....C ON....N, C QC

(QPF 1 - 4")

 

EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK

(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)

 

Scattered Locations In

S BC....SW AB....W, C MT....ID....WA....OR....CA....NV....AZ....UT....WY....CO....NM....TX....OK....KS....N KS....S IA....MO....AR....LA....MS....AL....FL....GA....TN....KY....IL....S WI....S Lower MI

IN....OH....E ON....C, S QC

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

Heat Ridges Continue To Rule The Middle East And Southwestern/Central Asia.

With repeated cases of cold upper lows and a broad 500MB trough across Russia, a semizonal flow is present roughly from the Black Sea into Manchuria that cuts off the cPk values in Siberia from reaching the Levant and Persia. This is the same general pattern seen for the past seven years, which virtually guarantees a constant heatwave from northern Africa all the way into Afghanistan and the deserts in the central portion of Asia. A shortwave or two may ride along the 500MB flow and provide occasional potential for thunderstorms in Anatolia, the Caucasus, and Caspian Sea shoreline. But you have seen this scenario for a while now, and a complete breakdown will not come until the second week of September. Sadly, the nations between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indus River have been the classic test case in proving that Global Warming/Climate Change is real. And the phenomenon is not going away anytime soon. Over the next ten days, the heat ridge core is bringing the worst of summer to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran.

 

HIMAWARI 8

METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

When I say "the Madden-Julian Oscillation is incoherent", I refer to situations like the satellite images posted here. Note the linear, chopped look of convection stretching from Phase 2 through 8. There is linkage to the polar westerlies (Aleutian Islands), but little impact downstream as the chaotic flow aloft is not enabling progression of  storms and cold fronts into the lower 48 states. There will be chances for tropical cyclone development in the western and central Pacific Basin, and hot temperatures will persist across the eastern PRC as well as the various archipelagos and peninsulas along the rim of Asia.

Cold frontal penetrations persist through Australia and New Zealand. The sequence is rooted in an upper low northwest of Antarctica and will continue to bring hancs for precipitation and cold air through the subcontinent.

 

GOES WEST

METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS

 

Tropical Storm Ivo is moving away from Mexico and will continue to weaken. I would like to point out that Ivo did not regenerate the monsoonal moisture fetch, hence the northern Mexican states and southwestern USA and Texas are likely to trend hotter in temperature over the near term.

In what may seem a minor detail, but is actually quite important, is the fact that high level westerlies have advanced all the way to the West Coast. This is something we would see in a typical El Nino episode. In many cases, the West Coast will trend cooler while the eastern 2/3 of the lower 48 states will see better chances for heat ridge formation and maintenance. Shearing profiles should reduce potential for meaningful tropical cyclone devel;opment along the western shores of Central America.

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

The diffuse frontal structure over Florida and the Bahamas seems to be transitioning to a convective circulation. It is possible that a depression or named storm could organize, as the upper flow is weak and heat ridging seems to be surrounding the disturbed area.

Hot weather has once again expanded  through much of the lower 48 states. Thunderstorm threats are emerging in the Upper Midwest as a strong mid-latitude cyclone tracks across the Prairie Provinces into Ontario. Cooler air will likely dominate above the International Border for the remainder of the month, punctuated by storms originating in the Gulf of Alaska, tracking through Quebec and Labrador.

The ITCZ is the strongest influence from the Amazon Basin into the Caribbean Sea, with widespread and mostly unorganized convection. There is remnant prefrontal convection in sections of southern Brazil and Uruguay. Colder air in the eastern Pacific Ocean will soon approach Chile and Argentina.

 

METEOSAT/SEVIRI

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

A warm-to-hot summer in southern Europe, mostly agreeable in the north half of the subcontinent. Most of the numerical model guidance keeps that same alignment in place through August 20, as storms and cold frontal passages move from the northern Atlantic Ocean into northern Russia. The Iberian and Balkan Peninsulas will routinely see hot weather, with upper level lows possibly contributing t6o thunderstorm development in Italy and Asia Minor.

The ITCZ has grown more active across equatorial Africa, which is probably why hurricane threats in the Atlantic Basin appear to be increasing. The Saharan heat ridge has expanded a bit, resulting in the hot/dry/dusty regime advancing past the Mediterranean Sea and also toward the Azores and Canary Islands chains. Most of southern Africa is fair and warm, but with some inroads by colder marine air  into coastal Angola and South Africa.