WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, June 1, 2024; WEATHER EXTREMES And GLOBAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

[Larry Cosgrove]

TODAY'S FUN LINKS:

The Midwest Could Be in for Another Smoke-Filled Summer. Here’s How States Are Preparing Inside Climate News - 20 May 2024 Fires fueled by drought are sending smoke south from Canada into the United States, leaving folks exposed to dangerous particulate matter in the air. UC Irvine-Led Team Uncovers "Vigorous Melting" at Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier University of California, Irvine - 20 May 2024 In a finding that may require a reassessment of global sea level rise projections, high-resolution satellite radar data showed evidence of the intrusion of warm, high-pressure seawater many kilometers beneath the grounded ice of the glacier.   Weather Risk Can Move Markets Months in Advance: Stock Traders Pay Attention to These 2 Long-Range Climate Forecasts The Conversation - 14 May 2024 A new study found that investors are paying millions of dollars to hedge the risks of what NOAA’s seasonal outlooks might say, suggesting that seasonal climate matters for the success of companies throughout the economy. Cloudy with a Chance of Rage: Climatologists Fume over Relocation of L.A. Weather Station (may require subscription) Los Angeles Times - 17 May 2024 A decision by government forecasters to relocate downtown L.A.’s official weather observation station from USC to Dodger Stadium is generating extreme heat from some local climate experts. Brazil Counts Cost of Worst-Ever Floods with Little Hope of Waters Receding Soon The Guardian - 19 May 2024 The death toll in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul is increasing daily as authorities plan four "tent cities" for 77,000 displaced people. Student Who Lost Two Sisters to a Tornado Dedicates Her Future to Meteorology Texas A&M University - 9 May 2024 Aria Vargyas has turned tragedy into passion more than a decade after a devastating tornado hit her hometown of Moore, Oklahoma. Why Tropical Waves Are Important during Hurricane Season Weather Underground - 16 May 2024 Often called African easterly waves, tropical waves are the building blocks for much of the tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic and even Pacific basins. WMO Regional Association for Africa Seeks to Strengthen Early Warnings and Climate Services World Meteorological Organization - 15 May 2024 The meeting brought together heads of national meteorological and hydrological services throughout the continent to address Africa's challenges in weather, water, and climate-related issues. Climate Change Is Affecting Mental Health Literally Everywhere Yale Climate Connections - 13 May 2024 Extreme weather, water scarcity, air pollution, and more are taking a toll on people across the world. Meteorologists Know How to Detect Tornadoes, so Let Them Do Their Jobs (may require subscription) Forbes - 9 May 2024 During a recent severe weather threat, A National Weather Service office had to post a reminder for people to stop calling them to point out radar signatures on their weather radar apps. New Proposals to Help NASA Advance Knowledge of Our Changing Climate NASA - 7 May 2024 NASA has selected four proposals for concept studies of missions to help us better understand Earth science key focus areas. Wildfires Have Lasting Impacts on Soil Chemistry Earth.com - 15 May 2024 Recent large-scale wildfires have sparked concern not only for immediate damage but also for the lasting effects on soil chemistry, which can influence water safety, air quality, and plant regeneration.

 

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)

ND....SD....MN....W, C IA....NW MO....E NE....KS....OK....TX Panhandle....NE NM....E, C CO....SE WY

Some Thunderstorms Masy APPROACH Severe Limits

C, E TX....LA....MS....AL....FL Panhandle....GA....W SC....W NC....E TN....VA Panhandle....WV....OH....NW PA....W NY....ON Peninsula

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)

W OR....WA....BC

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In

C, E TX....LA....MS....AL....FL Panhandle....GA....W SC....W NC....E TN....VA Panhandle....WV....OH....NW PA....W NY....ON Peninsula

(QPF 1 - 3")

Isolated Locations In

ND....SD....MN....W, C IA....NW MO....E NE....KS....OK....TX Panhandle....NE NM....E, C CO....SE WY

(QPF 1 - 3")

Scattered Locations In

W OR....WA....BC

(QPF 1 - 4")

EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY

(potential for temperatures exceeding 95 deg F)

 

Scattered Locations In

C, S CA....AZ....NV....UT....C, S WY....NE....KS....OK....W AR....W LA....TX....NM....CO

 

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

That old devil heat ridge is back!

Perhaps typical of summers in the Middle East and central Asia, all model guidance shows an exceptionally hot ridge at 500MB that stretches from Algeria into northern India. Those living under the anticyclone have little chance at important rainfall, and can face temperatures between 50 and 60 deg C in worst cases. If you are living near a water body such as the Red Sea or Persian Gulf, the heat sucks up high dewpoints in the lowest layers of the atmosphere and creates unbearably high relative humidity. This condition usually lasts, with few interruptions, into the first week of September.

The best chance for cooler air and precipitation would be in sections of eastern Anatolia and the Caucasus, with thunderstorms boosted by orographic lift and diffuse frontal structures that move out of the Balkan Peninsula. As for the monsoon, most of the fetch from the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal seems limited to Sri Lanka and eastern India through much ofIndochina and the eastern PRC and the western Pacific Ocean islands. In time, the precipitation potential will expand into southeastern Persia and the Indus Valley. But as they say, "we aren't there yet...."

 

MTSAT

METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

The monsoonal trough and fetch are clearly visible on global satellite imagery, currently targeting portions of India, Southeast Asia and the eastern shoreline of China into Japan. Most model guidance suggests a stronger growth pattern for precipitation to the north in June, with widespread heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms even reaching Afghanistan and Manchuria. There is some interaction between the moisture fetch and the polar westerlies which could bolster the Gulf of Alaska Low (a hot signal for much of the lower 48 states).

See also that Australia has stronger impulses in the westerlies, with one storm approaching New Zealand and another cold pool and front entering the southwestern portion of the subcontinent.

 

GOES WEST

NESDIS

 

With a La Nina episode developing, the Gulf of Alaska Low will prove very important to weather in North America this summer through the upcoming winter. The gyre is semi permanent, tending to build 500MB heights and warm advection across the lower 48 states between the Pacific Northwest and New England, both of which are likely to stay cool in the JJAS trimester. In the near term, the ejection of a string shortwave into British Columbia and Washington may set off severe weather and torrential rain that breaks up when reaching the Rocky Mountains.

 

GOES EAST

NESDIS

 

The weakness and embedded upper disturbance just west of the Mississippi Valley will continue to drift north and east, which eventually will allow a very hot air mass to control Texas and the Great Plains. This discontinuity may provide some potential for scattered convection to the Great Lakes, Mid-[Atlantic and New England states through the middle of the new week.

South America has undergone a major pattern change, with the persistent heavy precipitation from northern Argentina into southern Brazil being replaced by warm/hot and dry conditions. Strongest convection chances are in the northernmost sections of the continent.

 

METEOSAT/SEVIRI

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

Summer does not appear to be in any hurry to reach into the European subcontinent. The heat ridge complex covering northern Africa, the Middle East and the Central Asian Republics is not forecast to expand or retrogress in the next ten days. That means the cold fronts and disturbances in the northern Atlantic Ocean will routinely pass through the British Isles into western Europe, with showers/thunderstorms followed by cooler air that will reach into the southern and eastern nations. Later in summer the Saharan ridge complex will undergo retrogression, which may end the cooler pattern now present.

Note that the ITCZ is flaring with three easily identifiable equatorial waves. Running westward between the Sahara and Kalahari subtropical highs, the impulses will break up due to shearing wind profiles in the Atlantic Basin. It will probably not be until mid-August before the disturbances will have a chance at growth and be able to approach the major islands to the west.