TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | Eos - 22 September 2025Asymmetric volcanic plumes may shift equatorial weather patterns and increase tropical streamflow, according to new simulations. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
Coastal FL, GA, SC, NC
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
W, C NM....AZ....Interior CA....NV....UT....W CO....SW WY....Far S ID
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
Coastal FL, GA, SC, NC
(QPF 1 - 3")
Isolated Locations In
W, C NM....AZ....Interior CA....NV....UT....W CO....SW WY....Far S ID
(QPF 1 - 2")
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Isolated Locations In
SE OR....Interior CA....NV....AZ....NM....TX....OK Panhandle....Far W KS....CO....UT....S ID....S MT....SW ND....W, C SD....W NE
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
The heat ridge continues to retrogress and weaken. Still a mostly warm and dry scenario for the Levant, Iran and Indus Valley.
It will still prove difficult to encounter any meaningful rainfall across southwest Asia during the following ten days. The cooler air in Russia and the Central Asian Republics is gaining ground but only slowly, with thunderstorm potential low away from the major water bodies. There may actually be some intense convection across Asia Minor, the Caucasus, and the shorelines of the Caspian and Aral Seas. But the further south you go, bothersome heat and drought are still extant. The monsoon has largely ended, enmeshed with the Madden-Julian Oscillation from southern and eastern India through Indochina. The southward transfer of the cP regime in Russia will not be done until the last week of October.
HIMAWARI 8
JTWC; METEOBLUE; Kochi University
Watch the typhoon sequence in the western Pacific Ocean very carefully. If the truly big, menacing storms continue to target the coastline of eastern Asia, then no rapid colder changes are possible in North America. On the other hand, should systems such as Neoguri become stronger and entrained in the polar westerlies to the right of the Japanese Archipelago (maintaining a connection to stronger pulses in the Madden-Julian Oscillation), then a -EPO or +PNA ridge configuration will be an increasing possibility (Mild West/Cold Central, East alignment).
It is interesting that despite the increased amounts of storms and cold frontal passages through Australia, the BOM has stated that this was a mild or warm winter there. Precipitation was lower than average as well, not a surprise since west to east progression will usually take out dewpoints over the subcontinent. Another round of disturbances are seen along and below the Antarctic shoreline and entering New Zealand.
GOES WEST
NHC; METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
Hurricane Narda by itself is not an issue for Mexico and the western USA. But Narda and two other disturbances have brought up a great deal of moisture, much of the moisture spread helping to produce a diurnal+orographic thunderstorm field in the Desert and Intermountain Regions. The high dewpoints are helping to lower temperatures somewhat in the West, suppressing what would otherwise be a classic cooling demand scenario. Perhaps of greater "down the road" importance" is the storm sequence featuring massive Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Lows. In time the cold storms may conjoin and create the capacity for warm advection into the West Coast of North America. Therein lies the chance for a cold turn in October east of the Rocky Mountains.
GOES EAST
NHC; METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
Pay close attention not only to Tropical Depression 9 and Major Hurricane Humberto, both of which are still not well understood by the numerical models.. The early line is that Humberto will possibly target Bermuda then accelerate to the north and east. TD 9 is very slow, and could join the older storm on a seaward path. But there are still some options that could produce a linkage with the frontal structure running from Florida to the North Carolina Outer Banks.
There is a great deal of fair sky and warm air over much of North America. Moisture over the West may create a window for thunderstorms in the Great Plains and Midwest during the medium range.
More strong cold fronts await the southern half of South America. But the northern portion of the continent has smaller tropical waves with a mostly hot and dry scenario.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Europe is shaping up to have stronger storms and fronts pushing through to Russia and the Balkan Peninsula. Cooler air is staying mostly across the eastern portion of the subcontinent, and the latest ECMWF panels are showing chilly closed 500MB lows along and to the left of the Ural Mountains. If the model guidance is correct. ridging will occupy the British Isles through the Iberian Peninsula by October 7.
There continue to be prominent tropical waves associated with the ITCZ from the Horn Of Africa westward to the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Much of the African continent is quite hot and dry, save for the cold upper low that is occupying South Africa.
