WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, May 12, 2024; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

Heat Wins Out After A Brief Midwest/Northeast Cool Intrusion

CIMSS (2)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

ECMWF

HPRCC/University Of Nebraska (2)

Environment Canada

ECMWF (3)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (5)

Judging by the numerical models, either an upper air disturbance with thunderstorms, or a weak/moderate cold frontal passage will bring a modest cooling trend across the Midwest/Great Lakes and the Northeast in the 11-15 day period. But with the disappearance of an earlier forecast +PNA ridge (easy to believe as the index structures follow a negative measure for the first ten days of May(, the argument for pronounced discharge of polar air from Canada is gone. Consider also climatology for ascendant La Nina episodes.The ENSO 3.4 measure is very nearly flat neutral with rapid cooling not only along the Equator in the Pacific Ocean, but also off of the West Coast and in the Gulf of Alaska. If past history is correct, the stretch from AK, BC, WA, OR, CA and BCN will be mostly near or below normal. Further east, however, may turn into a very hot story.

The ECMWF Weeklies continue to show a worthless "neutral everywhere" approach into June, except maybe acknowledging the searing heat in Texas and Florida caused by nearness to the growing/linking heat ridge complex. As we are seeing in the medium range, cold fronts are being stopped by the warm profiles, which at this rate should own most of the eastern two-thirds of the lower 48 states. In a manner similar to weather for most of this spring, the blips of high heat out of Mexico will get more pronounced over time. Thunderstorm risks should start to shift north by May 22, and be mostly across the northern third of the nation as we start June. It will be a long75 days before the ridge starts to erode along the Gulf Coast. That is where potential for a tropical cyclone strike comes in, as I am holding to a forecast for exceptional intensity and increased chances for landfall (three or four options) between Brownsville TX and Eastport ME.

The heat. Then the hurricanes, later on.....

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Sunday, May 12, 2024 at 2:40 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2024 by Larry Cosgrove

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