WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, July 16, 2006 at 2:50 A.M. ET
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WEATHER SUMMARY THROUGH NEXT 72
HOURS
The most widespread heat wave of the summer so far has taken over much of the lower 48 states, with only W OR, WA and ME escaping the threat of 90 deg F, or greater, readings. Parts of SD actually reached past 115 deg F, raising new records and casting a threatening spell on more populated locations further east. The 100 deg F isotherm should reach most of the Corn Belt (including Chicago IL and Indianapolis IN), and most of Dixie and the East Coast will be in the 95-100 deg F bracket. Some higher dewpoints are creeping into the flow in communities to the right of the Mississippi River, making for a decidedly miserable, sulfurous start to the week.
Diurnal thunderstorms are possible in the Deep South (attached to deep mean easterly flow beneath the ridge) and in the "monsoon" fetch through parts of the Desert Southwest. But the real menace for convection (and that is the appropriate term) will be in southern Canada and the northern tier states. A cold front moving through QC may set off some stronger cells close to the Laurentian Shield and St. Lawrence Valley today. Another, more intense shortwave in the Prairie Provinces will trigger a swath of severe weather across S SK and S MB today, most of ON....MN....MI....WI tomorrow and then across QC and the lower Great Lakes by Day 3. Given the very impressive dynamic support present with this feature, tornado and hail threats may reach outbreak criteria as the energy rides over the huge heat ridge across the central portions of the nation.
Short-Range Numerical Weather
Prediction Models
(red dot
indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
RUC NAM GFS-5. RGEM. MM5 UKMET
CRAS SREF COAMPS RAMS
The
Weather Research And Forecasting Model Website
National Centers for Environmental
Prediction Models
Texas A&M Weather
Interface
______________________________________________________________________
Online Weather Discussions And
Forums
U.S. & World Weather Forums
CanadianWeather.org - Forecasts, Charts and Community
Forums
Online Weather Information
Guides
AMS Glossary WW2010 Helper Section
Index
Weather Calculator
COMET Case Study Library on the WWW
Climate Normals For The U.S.
Golden Gate Weather ENSO
Page
Weather Information
Plotting/Mapping
nowCOAST: GIS Mapping
Portal
NOAA Internal Experimental Winter Weather Impact
Graphics
The Weather Forecaster Web
Page
Plymouth State Weather
Center
Dr. Bob Hart's
Coolwx.com
U.S.
National Satellite Perspectives
Next-Generation Weather Satellite Demonstration
Project
Infrared Visible Vapor
Hawaii Infrared Hawaii Visible
Alaska Infrared Alaska Visible Alaska
Vapor
Canada Satellite
Perspectives
Environment Canada Satellite Image
Directory
Satellite Animations And
Multi-Channel Imagery
RAMSDIS ONLINE
NOAA Polar Satellite
Views Around North America
Quicklook Swaths
Browser
AVHRR Dynamic Tracking Windows
Milan Konecny's NOAA Satellite Views
Savannah-Weather.Com
NOAA HRPT Weather Satellite Images
National Radar
Summaries
National NEXRAD Summary
Environment Canada Radar
Summary
Numerical Model Temperature
Forecasts
Current NWS MOS Forecast
Products
Links To Current Weather Conditions
Around
North America And Worldwide
MesoNet Data
NWS Precipitation Analysis
Pages Current Weather Observations
Ocean Prediction Center - Unified Surface
Analysis
National Data Buoy Center Near Real-Time Polar
Products
Solar, Lunar, Astronomy
Information
MeL: Space &
Astronomy
SpaceWeather.Com
Tonight's Sky Sky & Telescope Interactive Sky
Chart
Human Space Flight - NASA-TV Solar
Terrestrial Activity Report
Satellite-Derived Forecast Products
NOAA/NESDIS/ORA
Forecast Products
Near Real-Time Polar
Products
Upper Air Analyses
Around North America
Upper Air Data From University Of
Wyoming
Aviation Weather
Analyses And Forecasts
Soundings from Commercial
Airliners
Aviation Weather Center
(AWC)
ORA Projects Page
ADDS - Turbulence
Environment Canada Aviation
Products
National Soil
Moisture Levels
Palmer Index Map (For Soil Moisture)
Drought Monitor
___________________________________________________________________________
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging
winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more
total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
(probable trajectory for midlatitude cyclones affecting populous sections of the United States and Canada)
______________________________________________________________________
AWC National Convective Weather Forecast Product
Oklahoma University Daily Real Time Analysis And Forecast System
Experimental 0-3 Hour Convective Weather Forecast Products
Collaborative Convective Forecast Product
Environment Canada Severe Weather Model
Severe Weather Watch Boxes
SPC Watch, Warning and Advisory Display
Local Weather Warnings
College Of DuPage Severe Weather Warnings Page
U.S. Station Weather Probability Forecasts
READY - State Weather
NAM MOS Graphics NGM MOS Graphics
Form For Selecting AVN MOS Bulletins NAM Precip Type Meteograms
______________________________________________________________________
Visible, Infrared, And Water Vapor
High Resolution Satellite And Radar Views:
University Of Washington Weather Graphics Loops
IPS Meteostar
Regional Radar Summaries
Northeast
Southeast
North Central
South Central
Northwest
Southwest
Useful
Television Station And Commercial
Doppler Radar Sites
WeatherMatrix Radar Supersite : TV
Radars
Doppler Radar Images From Government Sources
National Weather Service Doppler
Radars
Environment Canada Doppler
Radars
Experimental
Radar Images From The National Weather Service
National
Lightning Detection Map
StrikeStar US
Experimental Lightning Location
Network
Environment Canada Lightning
Map
BARBADOS Worthing VIRGIN ISLANDS St. Croix
Media Resources, Online Mapping And Travel AidsKevin Brewster Storm Spotting Frequencies Page
TV Station Web Page Directory Radio-Locator
National Traffic and Road Closure Information Traffic Reports Gas Prices MapQuest Windows Live Local Microsoft TerraServer Google Earth
The National Atlas of the United States of America
Where On Earth - Latitude Longitude Finder
Map-It - A GMT3 Map Generator
MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(weather trends through the next
6 to 10 days)
The longer term
forecast is quite troubling, in the sense that two pervasive threats are
apparent on NWP depictions. One is the continuing intense heat, which will lock
in across the western half of the nation while making occasional inroads into
the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard. The other risk is severe weather, which should
be prevalent along the northern tier of the nation as well as much of ON
and QC.
Thunderstorm potential will be dependent on strong 500MB shortwaves riding the baroclinic zone close to the international border. With an entrenched mean upper low in NU, the semizonal jet stream will carry a new impulse from BC toward NL/LBR every two days. Since the air mass across the Intermountain Region and Great Plains will be hot, dry, and very stable (capped), convection should not venture south of Interstate 90 (Sheridan WY to Janesville WI). But as the disturbances reach the Great Lakes, some manner of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will interact with the cool and arid regimes. So the northern portions of the Corn Belt, upper Appalachia as well as most of the Northeast will be vulnerable to intense convection during the Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday periods (and, it should be said, July 14-15). The analogues to this upper air pattern are strongly supportive of severe thunderstorms: a blend of 1976 and 1995.
The summer "monsoon" will likely be suppressed or forced westward as the ridge translates to the Salt Lake Valley by Day 7. That may be good news for parched, scorched C CA as well as southern reaches of AZ and NM. In Dixie, the potential for diurnal thunderstorms may be limited to the immediate Gulf Coast, since the computer outlooks suggest that the 500MB "dewpoint transporter" weakness may run close to the Atlantic Coastal Plain most of the next 240 hours.
Medium Range Numerical Weather Prediction
Models
(red dot indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
GFS. UKMETx ECMWF NOGAPS GGEM. MM5x KMA RSM JMA CPTEC GBL Ensembles DGEX EPS Maps
NCEP AVN-GFS
Ensembles NOGAPS Ensembles WRF Hemispheric
Medium Range NWP Verification
Statistics
Climate Prediction Center - D+8 Upper Air
Tools
______________________________________________________________________
Worldwide and International Satellite
Images
Earth Viewer: View Any Location from Any
Satellite
______________________________________________________
GOES 12 (The
Americas, Atlantic Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
GOES 10 (Eastern
Pacific Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
GMS 5 (Asia,
Australia, Pacific Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
METEOSAT 5
(Central Asia)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
METEOSAT 7
(Europe And Africa)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
Arctic Sea
Europe Infrared Europe Visible Europe Vapor
Russia The Middle East The Orient India
Australia New Zealand South America Africa
Antarctica
______________________________________________________________________
International Weather Radar Sites
WeatherMatrix Radar Supersite : World Radar
Data
Domestic And
International Weather Cameras
EarthCam
- Webcam Network
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
(information and forecasts of
warm-core or subtropical features)
By now, tropical
cyclone enthusiasts are asking, "where are the depressions and named storms"?
Truth be told, conditions are quite hostile for warm-core cyclogenesis, at least
in the Atlantic Basin. Close to the major islands and North America there is the
matter of prevalent southwest flow aloft, setting up a shearing vertical profile
sure to knock out any convective circulation. And SSTs remain colder than normal
over the equatorial reaches close to Cape Verde and its eponymous islands. While
the ITCZ-derived impulse pushing across western equatorial Africa is quite
impressive, chances for further growth appear limited, at
best.
And while the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean continues active with the diminishing Hurricane Carlotta and a formative tropical depression, the track of these systems into cold waters between Baja CA and HI favors rapid decay and no interaction with the Mexican mainland.
Satellite Images Of Individual Tropical
Systems
NRL Monterey Tropical Cyclone
Page
QuikSCAT
Satellite Images Of
Tropical Regions
GHCC - Interactive GOES-8 Infrared Hurricane
Sector
Atlantic Basin Satellite Services Division - Tropical Atlantic Satellite
Imagery
Mexico And Pacific Coastal
Waters
Central Pacific Ocean
Oceania And Tropical Western Pacific
Ocean
Indian Ocean
Digital Typhoon:
Typhoon Images and Information
Tropical Meteorology Links
National Hurricane
Center / Tropical Prediction Center
CIMSS
Sea
Surface Temperatures
NODC Coastal Water Temperature
Guide
Great
Lakes Sea Grant Coastwatch Homepage
NCODA Sea Surface
Temperatures
NCODA Sea Surface Temperature
Anomaly
NCODA Sea Surface Temperature
Climatology
Marine Weather
Information
WWW Tide/Current Predictor - Site
Selection
Office of Coast Survey - Home - Nautical
Charts
Regional Ocean Forecast System
(ROFS)
NOAA/NCEP WAM Global Swell
Data
Environment Canada Ocean Wave
Forecasts
NOAA WAVEWATCH III Wave Models
(interactive)
Great Lakes Water
Levels
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE
on
Sunday, July 16, 2006 at 2:50 A.M. ET
Disclaimer:
The previous statements are my opinions only,
and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this
newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and
the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those
sites.
Copyright 2006 by Larry Cosgrove
All rights
reserved.
This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in
whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the
author.