
Notes:
"Super El Nino" event appears unlikely; Weak register probable in June, Moderate strata should occur starting mid-August.
Linear depiction of warm anomalies in subtropics is very favorable for MCS formation through May, starting in Texas and Louisiana and migrating to Missouri Valley by mid-June.
Tropical cyclone potential depends on potential warming off of western Africa. Risks are normal to slightly below average in the Atlantic Basin.