TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | A Climate Skeptic Will Oversee the National Climate Assessment Eos - 9 July 2026 Since 2000, the U.S. Global Change Research Program has been responsible for publishing the National Climate Assessment, and now the program—and the assessment—is headed by former University of Alabama geochemist Matthew Wielicki, an outspoken climate change denier. |
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| | India's Monsoon Rain Depends on Where Air Gets Cleaner University of Reading - 15 July 2026 New research found that cleaning up pollution around the world could bring significantly more rainfall to India’s monsoon than regional action alone, highlighting the value of international cooperation on air quality. |
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| | Helping the National Parks Weather Future Storms NCAR - 15 July 2026 Researchers are using global computer simulations of the Earth system to identify changes in future weather conditions that could affect the frequency and intensity of disruptive storms in America's national parks. |
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| | Surfing Webcams Help Demystify Oregon's Coastal Fog University of California, Davis - 20 July 2026 Fog is typically measured via satellite, but a new study is the first to research the spatial variability of fog along the Oregon coastline using webcams and airport weather metrics. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
FL....GA
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
E AZ....W, C NM....W, C CO....W, C WY
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
AB....SK....S MB....MN....W WI....Upper MI....C ON....W QC
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
W BC....W WA
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
FL....GA
(QPF 1 - 2")
Isolated Locations In
E AZ....W, C NM....W, C CO....W, C WY
(QPF 1 - 3")
Isolated Locations In
W BC....W WA
(QPF 1 - 3")
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Numerous Locations In
CA....AZ....NV....S, C ID....MT....S AB....S SK....S MB....MN....ND....SD....NE....KS....OK....TX....LA....AR....MO....IA....W IL....W KY....W TN.....MS....AL....FL....GA
(a review of important weather features around the world)
FENG YUN 2
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; CMA
An upper air disturbance can inspire false hope. In this case, a minor impulse aloft off of the Arabian Peninsula (basically a mesoscale weakness at 500MB) is bringing some clouds and thunderstorms to far southeastern Iran. But that feature will break up in about 24 to 36 hours, while the massive dirty heat ridge continues to link with the Saharan ridge complex. Note also that the big subtropical high will undergo an expansion phase to the north and east. encompassing territory as far as Kazakhstan. Air quality in the Caucasus, Persia and Iraq will be atrocious to go along with the searing heat and dryness. Keep in mind that the monsoonal moisture fetch is actually weaker, so that Afghanistan and Pakistan (and even western India) will be trapped in ongoing high heat and drought. The troughs and cold fronts are far away to the north across the Russian steppes.
It will likely take another five weeks or so for the pattern to break up.
HIMAWARI 8
JTWC; METEOBLUE; Kochi University
Typhoon Houl is coming inland east of Hong Kong, and weakening rapidly. Houl could be a major rain producer in the eastern half of the PRC. There are other impressive tropical waves over the western Pacific Basin which will organize further, with track implications for either the Philippines or Japan and Korea. The monsoonal moisture fetch has weakened somewhat, but thunderstorm potential will remain high over much of Eastern Asia. The polar westerlies will continue to transport energy from the Kamchatka Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska, and help to trigger severe weather in southern Canada and the far northern USA.
As is usual with a well-defined El Nin o episode, it is largely bone dry and warm through Indonesia and much of Australia. There are storms and frontal structures touching on the Australian Antarctic coastline, and some of the disturbances may affect the southern portion of the subcontinent, including Tasmania and eventually New Zealand.
GOES WEST
NHC; METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
There is a chance that a weakening Hurricane Fausto could pass close to the north of Hawaii within another week. Hurricane Genevieve could become a major (exceeding 155mph core winds), and likely bypass the mainland and the Hawaiian Islands on Thursday through Saturday. The equatorial Pacific theater will be very active between now and October 15, and one or two of the storms could impact Mexico, the Southwest or even Texas (Tehuantepec Jumper), The northern stream flow will be laden with cold pools and disturbed weather, mostly affecting southern Canada through the longer term. Covering the western and central states is a huge Sonoran heat ridge, punctuated by a few monsoonal thunderstorms through the "Four Corners"
GOES EAST
METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
While shearing upper flow is a problem for the organization of tropical cyclones, keep in mind that there are two candidates for warm-core cyclogenesis in the Atlantic Basin. One is a convective circulation pushing into the Yucatan Peninsula, the other a decayed frontal wave in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles. Neither impulse has much chance of serious growth.
The most prominent feature is the 500MB heat ridge covering an area from the West Coast to the Mississippi Valley. This ridge is capable of keeping the western 2/3 of the nation in serious heat and air stagnation for at least the next ten days. Analogs support its presence lasting into early September. Some of the 11-15 day modeling suggests a breakaway subtropical high will bring a brief hot spell to Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard.
Except for stray diurnal convection across the northern and central portions of South America, a hot and dry scenario remains in control across those portions of the continent. Another noteworthy cold storm in the southern Pacific Ocean will target Chile and Argentina during the new week.
METEOSAT SEVIRI
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
The summer of the persistent Mediterranean Sea heat ridge continues. While the subtropical high is immense, the range of extreme heat has been limited in the sense that the active storm track keeps introducing modified polar values off of the Atlantic Ocean to the northern half of Europe. The flip side of the procession of disturbances is that for two or three days prior to arrival, the full force of Saharan air will be felt across the entire subcontinent. In about a week, even the British Isles may see readings consistently above 39 deg C. A cold frontal passage into western European communities should be strong enough to generate severe thunderstorms from Spain into the United Kingdom, then eastward into Russia and Ukraine by August 6.
Every El Nino is different, and you may have noticed that instead of the "typical" hot/dry equatorial regions in Africa, the ITCZ is lit up with strong tropical waves and heavy rainfall from the Red Sea all the way past the Cape Verde Islands. The upper flow across the Atlantic Basin is still sheared and therefore hostile to tropical cyclone development. Both the Sahara and Kalahari heat ridges are quite strong, with intense heat in the northern and southern thirds of the African continent (exception being the convection in Mozambique , and Tanzania.
