JJAS SUMMER WEATHER FORECAST; Saturday, May 2, 2026; MONTHLY WEATHER BREAKDOWN (2)

[Larry Cosgrove]

AUGUST

I am wary of the increased precipitation threat in Texas and the Gulf Coast, since the Sonoran heat ridge is still an influence and the 500MB weakness looks to be to the right of the Mississippi River. But a tropical feature could sneak into the mix. Hot and dry conditions should be at the strongest point across the entire West. The subtropical high straddling the Atlantic Basin could steer disturbances into the Greater Antilles and Florida, if TUTT signatures and shearing westerlies do not interfere.

SEPTEMBER

Most of the West and South should be hot before the Equinox, which during a well-defined El Nino usually signifies a quick turn toward southern branch storms (the 500MB anomaly shows this effect well).That would mean increased precipitation threats along the southern third of the USA in the last ten days of September. A Mexican coastal hurricane might also occur.