WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday June 5, 2022 at 11:15 PM CT; Near Term Forecast

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

Subtropical Agatha Remnants Out To Sea; Weak Cold Frontal Passage Through Midwest Into Eastern Seaboard

NOAA/NESDIS

TwisterData.Com (3)

University Of Wisconsin Weather Server (3)

UQAM Meteocentre (3)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory

Most of the numerical models have given up on the remnants of Hurricane Agatha, which broke up over southern Mexico before passing through western Cuba and southern Florida as a heavy rainmaker. I can see a scenario where official sources will try to name "Possible Tropical Cyclone 1", but realistically this system never reorganized because of shearing southwesterly winds aloft and merger with mesoscale vortices.

Of greater concern are the two disturbances and frontal structures  over the Gulf of Alaska and Intermountain Region. There is plenty of upper air support and surface inputs (convergence and unstable air) to generate a severe weather event in the Upper Midwest on Sunday that migrates toward the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes and the Northeast during the near term. The second system will impact the northern High Plains early in the new week with intense thunderstorms.

Heat Ridge Complex Covers Desert, Intermountain Regions, South Central U.S.

NOAA/NESDIS

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

ECMWF

At a time when the northern half of the U.S. and adjacent Canada are seeing late-season polar intrusions and risks for strong or severe thunderstorms, a Sonoran heat ridge will begin a building phase into the dry area stretching from California into Texas and Louisiana. In time the subtropical high will cover the entire portion of the U.S. below 40 N Latitude. But in the near term, the truly torrid hot zone will cover northern Mexico into Texas, with routine readings above 100 deg F. By the middle of next week, high dewpoints will enter the Lone Star State and start to occupy Oklahoma and Arkansas as well.