WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, June 6, 2026; WEATHER HAZARDS And GLOBAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

[Larry Cosgrove]

TODAY'S FUN LINKS:

Climate ReAnalyzer

WMCB

Cli-MATE

Weather Replay By Copernicus

 

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

LA....MS....AR....E OK....E KS....MO....IA....SE MN....SW WI....IL....IN....S OH....KY....TN....N, W AL

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms

(Large Hail, Microbursts, 

C, S SK....MB....MT....W ND

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In

LA....MS....AR....E OK....E KS....MO....IA....SE MN....SW WI....IL....IN....S OH....KY....TN....N, W AL

(QPF 1 - 3")

Isolated Locations In

C, S SK....MB....MT....W ND

(QPF 1 - 3")

 

EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK

(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)

 

Scattered Locations In

S CA....S NV....C, S AZ....S, E NM....W, C TX....OK Panhandle....Far W KS....E CO....NE Panhandle....W, C SD....C ND

Isolated Locations In

NC....VA

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

It is June, and our main concern is that Arabian/Persian heat ridge complex. Again.

The problem at hand is that with water levels lowering in Mesopotamia, Persia, and Pakistan, we are facing an extended period (likely through the first week of September) of relentless sunshine, high heat and low humidity. The critical factor is that subtropical high, which the numerical models suggest will expand both laterally (west and east) and northward (core reaching into Khuzestan Province in Iran) over the following ten days. Not only will the ridging prove troublesome for western and central Europe, but likely set up the entire Middle East through Central Asia and the Indus River watershed for a parched, torrid high sun period. The monsoonal fetch is being contained or shunted eastward to Indochina, so much of India will be reeling from drought and oppressive heat until the southern branch returns with moisture this fall.

 

HIMAWARI 8

METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

A lesser showing of the Madden-Julian Oscillation means more hot and dry weather for the Equatorial Pacific Basin.

The MJO signal started to weaken in the past week, with only pocketed diurnal convection across Indonesia. There are two stronger impulses in Micronesia and the Marians Trench, and both could turn into tropical cyclones with potential impacts on the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan. The westerlies continue to ascend to higher latitudes, which makes forecasts for cool weather in the lower 48 states problematical. Heat and dryness is starting to edge in from the deserts of Central Asia, following a cold frontal passage with thunderstorms that will impact Manchuria, the Korean Peninsula and Japanese Archipelago.

Australia, as is common in an El Nino episode, is mostly fair and mild/warm. The approaching Antarctic front will have little impact outside of the southern shoreline of the subcontinent and New Zealand.

 

GOES WEST

METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS

 

There are two potential tropical cyclone threats taking shape below Mexico and Central America. Amanda has dissipated. There is still some possibility that the moisture field associated with both disturbances could get entrained and move northward into the Gulf Coast or Florida Peninsula.

Confounding the earlier numerical model guidance, a Sonoran heat ridge holds over the Desert and Intermountain Region into northern Mexico. The majestic storm racing eastward form the northern Pacific Basin will affect the northwestern states and northern High Plains, but it appears that California and the Southwest will largely miss the arrival of cooler air. 

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

In looking at the GOES EAST image, it looks unlikely that any of the tropical systems in the equatorial regions of the Atlantic Basin will organize further. High-level winds are strong and shearing, and only a small window for lessening speeds aloft is expected between June 15 and July 31.

An upper disturbance in Arkansas will pull away tonight, and hot/dry air will fill in to Texas, the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm potential will mostly be over southern Canada in the near term.

The ITCZ is very active and concentrated through South America above the Amazon Basin. Very hot and dry conditions are found through the middle third of the continent. Active cold fronts and temperature drops are seen from Chile and Argentina across Uruguay and southern Brazil.

 

METEOSAT/SEVIRI

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

There is a fairly prominent cool, polar flow from the Atlantic Ocean through western Europe now, driving away the memory of the recent heat wave. Warmth continues through the Mediterranean countries, however, and many of the numerical models both strengthen the Saharan heat ridge and link that anticyclone to a thumb-projection blocking high in Great Britain by mid-June. In plain language that means the heat will be coming back, possibly worse than ever, to the central and western thirds of the subcontinent, if not beyond that area.

Note that upper westerlies are still noted across the entire northern half of Africa. The hostile flow aloft is touching convection associated with the ITCZ, enabling some isolated cases of thunderstorms in the Sahel and even the Atlas Range. A particularly strong impulse is entering the Congo Basin, while most of southern Africa is just hot and dry with no cold frontal impacts as of yet.