WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, June 27, 2026; WEATHER HAZARDS And GLOBAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

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Larry Cosgrove

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Jun 28, 2026, 12:43:53 AM (4 days ago) Jun 28
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TODAY'S FUN LINKS:

Trump Administration Ditches Plan to Close a Critical Ocean Monitoring System after Furious Bipartisan Backlash

CNN - 18 June 2026

The Ocean Observatories Initiative was established in 2016 and involves around 900 instruments across parts of the Pacific and Atlantic that provide vital information on the health of the world’s oceans.

Sea-Level Rise Has Increased Frequency of Extreme Coastal Flooding Worldwide, Study Finds

Tulane University - 10 June 2026

The research found that coastal flooding events expected only once every 100 years are now, on average, about 12 times more likely to occur.

6 Ways This Year’s “Super El Niño” Could Affect Climate, Humans, and Marine Creatures

Eos - 11 June 2026

NOAA recently forecast a 63% chance of a “very strong” El Niño from November 2026 to January 2027 that “would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record.”

New Bill Could Triple NOAA's Hurricane Hunter Fleet Starting in 2027

The Weather Network - 20 June 2026

The Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Recapitalization Act would empower NOAA to purchase up to six new aircraft to add to its aging fleet.

New Imaging System Sees through Murky Waters

Massachusetts Institute of Technology - 11 June 2026

The underwater mapping technique, named “Sonar-MASt3R,” combines sonar and visual data to create real-time 3D maps, even in cloudy water.

In a Victory for Science Advocates, a Federal Court Blocks the Trump Administration’s Push to Dismantle NCAR

Colorado Public Radio - 1 June 2026

Colorado U.S. District Judge R. Brooke Jackson issued the temporary injunction in response to a lawsuit filed in March by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, the nonprofit overseeing NCAR.

Hyperlocal Wind Forecasts Are on the Horizon

NCAR - 10 June 2026

Researchers are working on a major new project to predict low-altitude winds with improved accuracy and more granularity.

Measuring the Strength of El Niño—Introducing Relative Niño Indices

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - 10 June 2026

To provide an additional tool for describing the likely strength of an upcoming El Niño event, new indices offer a perspective that is less sensitive to long-term warming.

The Unusual Alliances Tackling Weather Risk to the Insurance Industry

(may require subscription)

Forbes - 14 June 2026

As extreme heat, hail, floods, and storms drive up insurance losses, a new partnership involving NASA, universities, and insurers aims to improve risk forecasting.

Unprecedented June Heat Grips Europe This Week

Yale Climate Connections - 22 June 2026

Temperatures could hit 100°F (38°C) in London and 104°F (40°C) in Paris—not just once, but perhaps for two or three days in a row—and in many spots the humidity will be relatively high.

Why the Arctic's Rivers Are Rusting

University of California, Riverside - 1 June 2026

Scientists have identified the two biggest reasons that once-pristine rivers across the Arctic are growing cloudy with toxic orange iron particles that smother insects and suffocate fish.

NASA Mission to Study Space Weather Impacts of Earth's Atmosphere

NASA - 18 June 2026

The Dynamic Atmosphere-Ionosphere Explorer (DAPHNE) mission will use identical twin satellites to study how changes in Earth’s lower atmosphere influence our planet’s upper atmosphere, where space weather is manifested.

10 Years of the Palau Observatory: Why Polar Researchers Are Working on a Small Pacific Island

Alfred Wegener Institute - 16 June 2026

For a decade, the observatory has been providing crucial data to understand how the atmosphere over the western Pacific influences climate worldwide.

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
 
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
 
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
N, C ID....WY....W, N MT....S AB....S SK....S MB....W ON....W Upper MI....N WI....N MN

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
SW PA....W MD....WV....VA....Far E TN....NC....SC
 
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
 
Isolated Locations In
N, C ID....WY....W, N MT....S AB....S SK....S MB....W ON....W Upper MI....N WI....N MN
(QPF 1 - 2")

Isolated Locations In
SW PA....W MD....WV....VA....Far E TN....NC....SC
(QPF 1 - 2")
 
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
 
Scattered Locations In
S CA Deserts....C, S AZ....NM....E CO....NE....OK....TX....LA....AR....MO....C, S IL....Far W KY....W, C TN....MS....AL....FL....GA....SC

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY
(a review of important weather features around the world)
 
Feng-Yun CMA
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ECMWF; METEOBLUE; CMA
 
The monsoonal fetch on satellite images may look, to the unschooled observer, like a monster moisture fetch. But the main thrust of the plume is across Indochina. Note the separation between two streams, the other being fragmented with limited convective results that delivers weaker showers and thunderstorms across parts of India, but does not involve the Indus River watershed. Pakistan and Afghanistan are hot and dry, and that regime is entrenched as far east as the Gobi Desert. The main feature is the Saharan heat ridge, which has expanded and conjoined with the Arabian/Persian subtropical high. Since equatorial moisture is headed westward through central Africa and northward into portions of the PRC, the entire stretch from Morocco and Spain eastward through Anatolia, the Levant, Persia and the west portion of South Asia is doomed to stay under obscene (up to 50 deg C and higher) heat with no chance for rainfall.
 
HIMAWARI 8
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METEOBLUE; Kochi University
 
Mekkhala is merging (as a weak subtropical storm) with the polar westerlies, and may have a minor amplifying influence on the 500MB longwave pattern as it moves from the Aleutian Islands into North America in the first few days of the new week. It appears this may be the mechanism to dislodge the heat ridge now building across the eastern half of the lower 48 states. There are other impulses inspired by the Madden-Julian Oscillationwhich may affect Micronesia and the Philippines, especially Invest 94W which has passed the International Dateline and has large wind and precipitation coverage.

A large cold storm is impacting Australia, with its attendant cold front through the Outback. This system should affect Tasmania and the South Pacific shoreline within 72 hours.
 
GOES WEST
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NOAA/NESDIS
 
Chances for a tropical cyclone reaching the Hawaiian Islands have increased, as the equatorial moisture axis is percolating and an important wave is positioned to the right of the International Dateline. The two deep cold upper troughs to the left of the West Coast could erase the heat ridge over the island chain, which might allow for a northward trajectory. Most importantly, the vigorous cold upper lows in the polar jet stream will initiate strong warm advection over much of the lower 48 states, which is why a powerful heat ridge complex is likely to control weather to the right of the Rocky Mountains through the 6-10 day range.
 
GOES EAST
image.png
NOAA/NESDIS
 
There is a well-defined cold front stretching from a storm over the Pacific Northwest into the Mid-Atlantic, but the cooler values dropping out of southern Canada will not last very long. You can see a large heat ridge outlined over the Southwest  into the High Plains. This feature will expand into a wide-range subtropical high covering the eastern two-thirds of the USA during the new week, and in the process produce a potentially long-lived heatwave. Most of the precipitation chances will be severely cut back as the Saharan dust cloud over the Caribbean Sea is entrained in a dirty ridge complex.

Thunderstorms are starting to return to the Amazon Basin, remnants of equatorial ITCZ waves that moved off of the African coastline.  Strong cold fronts will continue to move across the central and southern parts of South Africa, but likely not reaching far enough inland to affect the coffee crop.
 
METEOSAT/SEVIRI
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ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
 
The broad storm complex over the eastern Atlantic Ocean will push the heat ridge complex through central and eastern Europe. Cooler weather is possible through midweek across the subcontinent, but by next weekend a new subtropical high will organize over the Iberian Peninsula and start to expand through France/Italy into Germany and the Low Countries. That next round of hot weather will have a strong air mass contribution from the western Sahara Desert, and add both stagnation and Saharan dust to the summer agonies of the European Union.

 A vast spread of cTw (hot/dry) values covers the entirety of northern Africa. The ITCZ is active through the equatorial nations (between Cape Verde and the Horn Of Africa), but shearing wind profiles aloft are reducing the impulses upon crossing into the Windward Islands. We are entering a period where some of the tropical waves will have reduced shear into the Caribbean Sea, so intensification to a tropical cyclone cannot be ruled out. But this window will be brief, and by mid-August the potential for important hurricane threats from the Main Development Region will decrease. Note that the southern half of Africa is still quite warm, with summer-like convection noted from Angola into Mozambique.
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