WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 11:40 PM CT; Medium Range Outlook

[Larry Cosgrove]

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

(Four To Ten Days From Now)

 

Despite Some Very Cold Projections From The Numerical Models, Use Caution As Warmer Results Seem Likely

ECMWF (4)

PivotalWeather.Com (4)

While some of the numerical model guidance shows some scary-looking temperature falls across much of the nation next weekend, it is important to note that the seasonal normal temperatures are now rising rapidly (meaning an offset from measured anomalies), and that a cold bias is present in guidance before April 15.  There will be a ridge in western Canada, which should aid drainage of cA values into the north central states. Aided by an existing snow cover, it will feel like January in the upper and central Missouri Valley. But warmer recovery will be more frequent through the southern tier of states. See also that rather than having a storm arriving every other day in California and the Intermountain Region, most disturbances will enter the continent on the Pacific Northwest and drop into the central High Plains before tracking into the Great Lakes. It will be warm enough for severe thunderstorm potential to increase across the lower Great Palkins and Texas through the Dixie states in the medium range.

Severe Weather Threats Appear From South Central U.S. Through Dixie

UQAM Meteocentre (4)

TrueWx.Com (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (2)

One of the aspects of the developing weather pattern across North America will be the return of severe weather. The passage of low pressure through the Great Lakes with its trailing cold front across the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard will have a sharp temperature differential accompanying, so the resultant strong lift will likely create risks of intense convection from TX and OK through the Old South and Mid-Atlantic March 16-18. Another surge of warm air ahead of a low center forming in the Texas Panhandle on March 21 should resume the potential for gusty winds and individual supercell thunderstorms in the south central states.