WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, June 15, 2024; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

The Importance Of The Conjoined Sonoran + Bermudan Heat Ridge To Your Forecast

CIMSS (2)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

ECMWF

HPRCC University Of Nebraska (2)

Environment Canada

ECMWF (3)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (5)

NOAA/CPC

With the exception of an apparent mean 500MB weakness covering the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into Northeast Texas, most of the forecast for early summer 2024 is on target. An immense heat wave that sprouted across the Intermountain Region has been edging into the High Plains and Gulf Coast, and the predicted explosion of intense heat through the Mid-South and Eastern Seaboard will come true with a vengeance. But there are some conflicting features that must be looked at. One of these is the insistence of the European model weeklies that a 2007-style cool and heavy rainfall alley will set up over Texas.

The CFS series has been more accurate with respect to the position of hot air and the upper level atmospheric heights. The aforementioned weakness is larger and further east than earlier outlook, and in any event a new heat bubble shows up along and to the right of the Rocky Mountains. The conjoined Sonoran + Bermudan subtropical high should expand into the states along the Canadian Border, if not further north. In time (probably 6 to 8 weeks), TUTT signatures and southwest flow in the Northwest theater will be erased. At that point, minor Gulf of Mexico systems will fade from view, replaced by "Cape Verde" type hurricanes that this year will actually have a decent chance at striking populated areas in the major islands, Deep South, and Eastern Seaboard. This is going to be a rough second half of summer and autumn. The only blip in the forecast is that we are still essentially neutral in terms of sea surface temperature anomaly in ENSO 3.4, and the once fearsome warmth of the equatorial Atlantic Basin has dwindled somewhat.

Note also the Gulf of Alaska Low, which is starting a process of ejecting impressive shortwaves eastward through the Prairie Provinces intop Ontario and Quebec. While colder air and more precipitation should eliminate most wildfire threats, tornado and large hail risks will be quite high along and 250 miles either side of the international boundary. As each impulse deepens and moves out of the Rocky Mountains, the hot and dry regime from Mexico will expand and move through the Great Plains through the Midwest and then across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. So before the hurricanes show up, more discomfort from the heat.

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, June 15, 2024 at _:__ P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2024 by Larry Cosgrove

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