WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday,June 13, 2015 (Near Term Forecast)
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Larry Cosgrove
Jun 13, 2015, 7:14:19 PM6/13/15
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SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK
(Through The Next 72 Hours)
Western Gulf Coast And The Entire Corn Belt Are In For Another Big Round Of Flooding Rains And Severe Weather
NASA
NASA
University Of Wisconsin Weather Server (3)
TwisterData.Com (3)
Plymouth State University Weather Server (3)
TropicalTidbits.Com (Levi Cowan)
You may not realize it, but there is a fair chance that you could be witnessing the development of a large-scale flooding rain event not seen since the 1993 debacle that smacked the Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys. What makes the near term forecast so special is that a slow-moving frontal structure (and weak trough aloft) will be joined by a tropical disturbance now nestled near Cancun Mexico. With a heat ridge over Georgia (with some help from Hurricane Carlos off of the Pacific coastline of Mexico) providing a steering component and keeping the system in a 500MB weakness, the concept of growth (perhaps into depression or tropical storm status) and eventual impacts across Texas and Oklahoma loom large. Some communities may be dealing with between 12 - 18 inches of rain totals by June 20.
As I see it, Invest 91L is likely headed for a landfall around Bay City TX on Monday night. Going with the slower GGEM model depiction, the interaction of the "possible Bill" and existing outflow and thermal boundaries implies that much of the eastern half of Texas is going to take a brutal beating from tremendous rains, accompanied by a few cases of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. As the weak cool front in OK and N TX links with the storm, an area from the "Arklatex" vicinity into E OK will see a blow-up of convection and downpours on June 16, which should then merge with other areas of rain and thunder across the Midwest. As you can see by the attached precipitation total charts (and there is, for once, excellent agreement between the various computer models on this topic....), public utilities will likely be compromised by the barrage of torrential rains.
Note also that the "left-behind" weakness in TX and LA will still enable diurnal and nocturnal convection in those states. And also that a possible two days of heavy rain and thunder awaits the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Most of the computer schemes have another impressive shortwave in the polar westerlies exiting MT and WT at midweek, so the Midwest will likely be reeling from the bad weather as much as their counterparts in the south central states.
Extreme Heat Largely Limited To California, The Desert Regions, And The Southeast
NASA
You may not realize it, but there is a fair chance that you could be witnessing the development of a large-scale flooding rain event not seen since the 1993 debacle that smacked the Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys. What makes the near term forecast so special is that a slow-moving frontal structure (and weak trough aloft) will be joined by a tropical disturbance now nestled near Cancun Mexico. With a heat ridge over Georgia (with some help from Hurricane Carlos off of the Pacific coastline of Mexico) providing a steering component and keeping the system in a 500MB weakness, the concept of growth (perhaps into depression or tropical storm status) and eventual impacts across Texas and Oklahoma loom large. Some communities may be dealing with between 12 - 18 inches of rain totals by June 20.
As I see it, Invest 91L is likely headed for a landfall around Bay City TX on Monday night. Going with the slower GGEM model depiction, the interaction of the "possible Bill" and existing outflow and thermal boundaries implies that much of the eastern half of Texas is going to take a brutal beating from tremendous rains, accompanied by a few cases of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. As the weak cool front in OK and N TX links with the storm, an area from the "Arklatex" vicinity into E OK will see a blow-up of convection and downpours on June 16, which should then merge with other areas of rain and thunder across the Midwest. As you can see by the attached precipitation total charts (and there is, for once, excellent agreement between the various computer models on this topic....), public utilities will likely be compromised by the barrage of torrential rains.
Note also that the "left-behind" weakness in TX and LA will still enable diurnal and nocturnal convection in those states. And also that a possible two days of heavy rain and thunder awaits the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Most of the computer schemes have another impressive shortwave in the polar westerlies exiting MT and WT at midweek, so the Midwest will likely be reeling from the bad weather as much as their counterparts in the south central states.
Extreme Heat Largely Limited To California, The Desert Regions, And The Southeast
NASA
TwisterData.Com(2)
ECMWF
Despite the abundance of cloudiness and rain, there are still place sin the U.S., lots actually, that are dealing with hot and/or humid weather. A persistent heat ridge will keep the rainfall out of the Southeast (Great Smokies type), while a weak Sonoran subtropical high send readings into uncomfortable levels from California into westernmost Texas. The ridge complex in the Southwest should put an end to severe weather chances in CO and UT by the middle of the new week.
ECMWF
Despite the abundance of cloudiness and rain, there are still place sin the U.S., lots actually, that are dealing with hot and/or humid weather. A persistent heat ridge will keep the rainfall out of the Southeast (Great Smokies type), while a weak Sonoran subtropical high send readings into uncomfortable levels from California into westernmost Texas. The ridge complex in the Southwest should put an end to severe weather chances in CO and UT by the middle of the new week.
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