WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, May 11, 2024; SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 Mom Sends Severe Thunderstorms, Flooding Rain, And Tornadoes

METEOBLUE

University Of Wisconsin Weather Server (3)

TwisterData.Com (3)

UQAM Meteocentre (3)

College Of Dupage Weather Laboratory

It can be a very rough spell of weather when there is a 500MB weakness, surface convergence, incredibly unstable air and pulses of high upward motion coming together at the same time. The next ten days will see a likely brutal display of severe thunderstorms and torrential rain. As the most rapid destabilization of the atmosphere will occur over Texas on Sunday afternoon and night, the potential for hail, high winds, and tornadoes will line up along a line just west of Interstate 35 into Oklahoma and Kansas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Since steering currents will initially be weak (but will start to accelerate on Tuesday afternoon) the threat of another hard hit of torrential rain and concurrent intense convection will be a big problem for power and transportation. The addition of another shortwave in this unphased configuration (out of South Dakota and Nebraska) could worsen conditions in the central chamber of the lower 48 states through the middle of the new week.

Heat Build-Up Along The Pacific And Gulf Of Mexico Coastlines

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

ECMWF

So far the numerical models are in tandem with the scenario of a huge, powerful cTw heat ridge over Mexico that will, in time, build across Texas and the Gulf Coast. The various schemes have backed away quickly form the idea of a +PNA ridge along the West Coast, with an upper lwo embedded in the subtropical jet stream targeting California by Tuesday. The ridging is flattened somewhat, but is still an input for an mTw regime ahead of a storm and cold pool. Hence the severe thunderstorm risks continue in the Dixie states into midweek. At some point the subtropical high will replace the disturbances, and the stretch from the Desert Regions through the Lone Star State will turn to summer weather, and in a hurry.