WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, June 14, 2026; SHORT And MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOKS

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 

Thunderstorms And Heavy Rainfall Continue To Dominate The Forecast. Especially Near The Gulf Coast.

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

ECMWF

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory

For the next ten days, repeated progression of shortwaves around the deep 500MB closed low over Hudson bay will mean constant threats for thunderstorms from the northern High Plains through the Midwest into Appalachia. Severe weather chances will be heighted in the Northeast on Sunday as a surface disturbance passes through the lower Great Lakes into New England. Ridging over the West continues to present hot and dry air from the Pacific shoreline through most of the Intermountain Region, although a moisture fetch from Mexico may climb into the "Four Corners" with chances for orographic convection.

The threat to watch deals with the disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico. There is about a 1 in 3 risk that this feature congeals into a warm-core circulation, and as the center moves along the Gulf shoreline of Texas and Louisiana there could be extreme amounts of rain along the Interstate 69 corridor and encompassing much of the Dixie states. Since the frontal structure may stall about 100 miles inland from the coast, some uncertainty is present as to where the axis of heaviest rains (perhaps well surpassing a foot of water) could fall. The moisture fetch associated with this system originates in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a placement well know to Southeast Texas as it is associated with past mega-floods such as Tropical Storm Allison (2001), Hurricane Harvey (2017) and Tropical Storm Imelda (2019). After landfall, the rain and circulation will likely move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by next Saturday.

 

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

(Four To Ten Days From Now)

 

Cool Air Indicated East Of The Rocky Mountains And Above The Interstate 20 Corridor

METEOBLUE

UQAM Meteocentre (4)

TrueWx.Com (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (2)

It has become apparent that even though polar air masses will have success in pushing out of the Prairie Provinces through the Great Plains, Midwest and Appalachia, some parts of the lower 48 states will escape the cooler values either partially or completely. Most of the schemes (except the operational GFS version) see fairly normal cP intrusions that cannot push down to the Gulf Coast or reach the Eastern Seaboard. The western USA also misses out on cooler air because an amplified Sonoran heat ridge is in place through the next 16 days. Keep in mind that repeated frontal passes will mean constant thunderstorm threats. The Heartland will almost surely take another hit of intense convection next weekend.