WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, July 11, 2026; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

Will The Hot West/Central Vs. Cool East Alignment Stay Through The Remainder Of Summer?

CIMMS (3)

CMA/WMO

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

ECMWF

HPRCC/University Of Nebraska (2)

Environment Canada

WeatherBELL (9)

First a disclaimer. You will notice that the climate average for temperature in the lower 48 states is essentially Central, East hot vs. cool/neutral West. The model and analog projections, of course, are the exact opposite of the list of projections for July. The massive heat wave that struck the eastern third of the USA in the first week of the month, which was correctly forecast, sets the table for the average, which in recent days has shifted leftward. All of the numerical models are showing an impressive, more inland +PNA/-AO signature at 500MB with a conjoined Sonoran +Arctic ridge structure, with emphasis on the strong heat ridge. Cold fronts of varying magnitude should suppress temperatures along and to the right of the Mississippi River.

What could break this pattern, which appears to continue in some way, shape, or form through the third week of September? A tropical system may arise between now and mid-August, when low-latitude westerlies common with an El Nino episode will lessen if not eradicate cyclone chances in the Atlantic Basin. If a weakness arises from the Gulf of Mexico or Florida into the Maritime Provinces, then perhaps a stronger tropical storm or hurricane could shake up the upper flow. The other issue is in the western/central Pacific Ocean, where the active impulse sequence could develop into a typhoon and flow into the polar westerlies. In that case, much cooler air would shift westward to the Continental Divide, leaving only the immediate West Coast to heat and dryness. Those scenarios seem somewhat unlikely, since a repeated theme in the model weeklies and monthlies is for the hottest air to be in an arc from California to Texas northward to the Dakotas and Montana. Which is the preferred case for the near term.

One more comment. The seasonal forecasts for the DJF semester are too far in advance to be useful. In fact the upper air projections of vigorous Canada-wide ridging and a broad semizonal flow across the lower 48 states would probably translate to a mild North vs. cool (not cold) South configuration similar to the 1983-84 or 1997-98 winters. We have entered a strong + ENSO 3.4 signature that most model guidance says will break down rapidly after mid-January, however, which might give some hopes for Americans wishing for cold along with ice and snow.

But don't get your hopes up just yet!

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 12:50 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2026 by Larry Cosgrove

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