WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, July 25, 2026; EXTENDED OUTLOOK

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

More Heat From The West Coast To The Mississippi River; Eastern Third Of The USA Has The Cold Frontal Passages

CIMSS (3)

CMA/WMO

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

IRI/Columbia University

HPRCC/University Of Nebraska (4)

Environment Canada

WeatherBELL (9)

NOAA/CPC

I think that it is time that we discuss how actual weather is turning out in the USA, what with blaring hyped headlines talking about oceanic symptoms, but not where people actually live. One symptom of summer, which is now past the halfway point (and remember, I follow classic calendar times as well as holidays....) is that instead of a hot West,Central vs. neutral/cool East, we have a warm to hot high sun period over most of the lower 48 states. Indeed, while the 500MB pattern has verified quite well (as did the June national temperature forecast), July has been slow to show any real cooler air despite the passage of three strong cold fronts with abundant heavy rain and severe weather passing through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic/New England. Three stronger El Nino analogs have stood out as far as upper air and sensible weather: 1976, 1997, and 2015. A new wrinkle has emerged, where the model guidance suggests a rapid weakening or collapse of the El Nino 3.4 sector warmth starting in December. That would culminate in a neutral signature (around 0 deg C deviation) by next April. The consistency in the CFS forecasts (although I think the 3.5 deg C warm anomaly is excessive when measured against other strong-imprint +ENSO episodes) leads me to favor a more subtle strong prediction like the IRI statistical average. Most of the evidence provided would seem to suggest a warm autumn nationally, with an abrupt cold/stormy turn in the last week of January. I think it unwise to go into too much depth for the winter forecast (which I should finish in the third week of October), because other variables will arise (and no, I do not use climatic indices...) that may change the outlook.

For August, I will stick with a hot West/Central vs. mild East. Some polar air masses and thunderstorm groupings are bound to make that familiar arc from the Dakotas and Minnesota into the Interstate 95 corridor. Monsoonal convection may pick up in parts of the Intermountain Region, but the greatest challenge will be if one of the numerous tropical cyclones out of the equatorial Pacific Basin pipeline make qa turn into the Desert Regions or perhaps through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec into Texas. There is still a small chance of a significant Cape Verde type storm affecting the East Coast, provided said storm gets by the Saharan dust and shearing wind profiles that are present west of the Cape Verde Islands.

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 2:00 A.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2026 by Larry Cosgrove

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